\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Event overview. On April 21, the company released its annual report for 2021. The annual revenue was 130356 billion yuan, an increase of 159%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.9 billion yuan, an increase of 185%. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 13.4 billion yuan, an increase of 215%, and the performance was within the scope of the previous notice. The company achieved 133gwh of lithium battery sales, an increase of 185% at the same time, including 117gwh of power battery system sales, an increase of 163% at the same time, and 22% of gross profit margin, a decrease of 4.6pcts at the same time; The sales volume of energy storage system was 16.7gwh, and the revenue was 13.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 601%, and the gross profit margin was 28.5%, with a decrease of 7.5pcts; Lithium battery materials sold 283800 tons, an increase of 312% with a gross profit margin of 25.1% and an increase of 4.7%. We expect that the change in gross profit margin is mainly due to the price change of raw materials.
21q4 performed well. The company’s 21q4 revenue was 57 billion yuan, an increase of 203% in the same period and 95% in the ring. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.2 billion yuan, an increase of 267% in the same period and 150% in the ring. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 9.3 billion yuan, an increase of 450% in the same period and 247% in the ring. Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of 2021q4 is 24.7%, with a decrease of 3.7pcts and a ring decrease of 3.2pcts. Net interest rate: the net interest rate in 2021q4 was 15.3%, with a simultaneous increase of 2.4pcts and a ring increase of 2.2pcts. Thanks to cost control, the net interest rate increased significantly month on month. Expense rate: during 21q4, the expense rate was 10.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5pcts. Inventory: the inventory at the end of 21q4 was 40.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.23 billion yuan compared with that at the end of 21q3. The company’s inventory of lithium batteries was 40.2gwh, with excellent inventory management. Notes payable and accounts payable: a total of 1.072 billion yuan, an increase of 290 million yuan compared with the end of 21q3, reflecting good supply chain management ability.
Driven by science and technology, innovation is king. Battery chemistry system innovation: the company has the first mover advantage in sodium ion battery, LMFP, m3p and other systems, in which m3p has about 20% higher energy density than traditional LFP; The estimated cost, energy density and safety have obvious advantages over the traditional 5 and 6 series ternary system; Packaging technology iteration: under the same chemical system and the same size of battery pack, ctp3 The power consumption of 0 is 13% higher than that of 4680 system, and its system weight and energy density have reached the highest level in the industry. Composite fluid collector: the safety, volume, weight and energy density of the new composite fluid collector technology are significantly higher than those of the traditional fluid collector, and it is expected to take the lead in the positive electrode.
The layout of mineral resources is further upward to create the cost advantage of raw materials. On April 20, the company announced that its holding subsidiary won the exploration right of ceramic soil (including lithium) in jianxiawo mining area of Jiangxi Province with 865 million yuan, laying a foundation for further increasing the self supply rate of lithium metal. On April 15, the company announced that the holding subsidiary and local partners in Indonesia would jointly invest no more than US $5.968 billion to build a power battery industry chain project in Indonesia for the development and smelting of nickel resources used for ternary cathode materials of power batteries and the recycling of power battery materials.
Taking the east wind of energy storage, the second growth curve rises from the ground. The energy storage business has maintained a growth rate of more than 200% in the past three years. At the same time, the gross profit margin of energy storage business is higher, which effectively improves the comprehensive gross profit margin of the company. We expect that the shipment volume of the company’s energy storage business will be more than 50gwh in 22 years, and the shipment volume will continue to increase in the future.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.8, 40.3 and 55.3 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 100%, 27% and 37%. The current share price corresponds to PE of 30, 24 and 17 times respectively. Considering the rapid expansion of the company’s production capacity, the rapid growth of energy storage and the rapid increase of global new energy market demand, we maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price fluctuation of raw materials is higher than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
