\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 824 Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 206 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 173%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 203 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 196%; EPS is 1.12 yuan / share.
Comments:
The volume and price of CTP battery tray increased simultaneously, which promoted the growth of the company’s profit and profit margin. The company’s Q1-Q4 revenue in 2021 was 426 million yuan, 521 million yuan, 615 million yuan and 848 million yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 36.34 million yuan, 39.4 million yuan, 50.33 million yuan and 80.2 million yuan respectively, with a month on month increase of 59% in Q4. The company’s annual performance increased significantly in 2021, mainly driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry and the stable growth of consumer electronics industry. Although the rise of aluminum price has dragged down the company’s profits, the company’s profit margin has increased steadily (Q1-Q4 gross profit margin is 20.59%, 18.12%, 18.96% and 22.3% respectively, and the net profit margin is 8.87%, 7.66%, 8.4% and 9.85% respectively), which is mainly due to the increase of the sales proportion of CTP battery tray and unit value. At present, the company’s auto parts, especially battery trays, are the main growth points of the company’s performance. In 2021, the revenue of auto parts increased by 139% to 1.18 billion yuan, the proportion of revenue increased from 33% in 2020 to 49%, and the gross profit margin increased from 17.3% in 2020 to 20.9%. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 51-61 million yuan (excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses), with a year-on-year increase of 36-63%. With the rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of battery trays of the company will increase steadily, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to maintain high-speed growth.
The battery tray leader continues to benefit from new energy vehicles and has broad growth space. The company will continue to adhere to the “two wheel drive” strategy of consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, and is committed to becoming a technology driven supplier of new materials and new energy integrated components. In 2020, the company took the lead in cooperating with customers to successfully develop the second generation CTP battery tray in the industry. By integrating various functional components of the battery tray, the integration efficiency was greatly improved, the mileage anxiety of electric vehicles was alleviated, and the unit value of products was also promoted. At present, it is the core supplier of battery tray and other parts for downstream high-quality enterprises such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC new energy. In 2021, the output of battery tray of the company was 314200, with a year-on-year increase of 123%, and continues to maintain the leading position in the world. We expect that by 2025, the global output of new energy vehicles will be about 25 million. Assuming that the value of battery tray single vehicle is 3000 yuan, the global battery tray market will reach 75 billion yuan in 2025, and the company has broad growth space in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 367, 581 and 861 million yuan respectively, EPS to be 1.99, 3.14 and 4.66 yuan / share respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price to be 13X, 8x and 5x respectively. The current valuation level is low. Considering that the company’s main performance growth in the future comes from the battery tray business of new energy vehicles and the high growth of its industry, the company maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: the rise of aluminum price leads to the decline of gross profit margin of the company’s products; The sales volume of battery tray products of the company is lower than expected; The growth of global and Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sales was lower than expected.
