\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 216 Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, it realized revenue of RMB 6.943 billion / + 0.3% YoY, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 641 million / – 16.5% YoY, and net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 551 million / – 3.4% YoY deducted; The single 21q4 revenue is 1.864 billion yuan / + 8.2% YoY, the net profit attributable to the parent is 255 million yuan / + 29.4% YoY, and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 241 million yuan / + 39.0% yoy. 22q1 realized revenue of 2.343 billion yuan / + 0.5% YoY, net profit attributable to parent company of 261 million yuan / + 48.4% YoY, net profit not attributable to parent company of 240 million yuan / + 39.9% YoY deducted.
Revenue met expectations, and channel and product reform brought structural optimization. 1) Channel reform continued to be implemented, and the proportion of distribution revenue continued to increase: according to the sales model, the distribution revenue in 21 years was 5.124 billion yuan / + 4.9% YoY, the proportion of revenue increased by 3.3pct to 73.8%, the direct revenue was 1.617 billion yuan / – 15.8% YoY, the proportion of revenue decreased by 4.4pct to 23.3%, the income of direct e-commerce was 159 million yuan / + 76.2% YoY, and the income of other businesses was 43 million yuan / + 32.7% YoY; 2) The catering sector continued to maintain rapid growth: in 21 years, the retail and innovation market revenue was 5.772 billion yuan / -3.6% YoY, and the catering market revenue was 1.171 billion yuan / +24.6% YoY; 3) The rinsing and baking scene continues to develop: according to products, the revenue of quick-frozen rice flour products in 21 years is 6.032 billion yuan / – 3.2% YoY, quick-frozen prepared food is 746 million yuan / + 30.0% YoY, and refrigeration and short-term insurance are 123 million yuan / + 40.2% yoy.
The cost optimization was significant, and the profitability of 21q4 improved more than expected. 1) The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21 years is 9.2% / – 1.9pctyoy respectively, deducting the net interest rate not attributable to the parent company of 7.9% / – 0.3pcttyoy; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 13.7% / + 2.2pctyoy, deducting the net interest rate not attributable to the parent company of 13.0% / + 2.9pctyoy. The profitability in a single quarter exceeded the period of benefiting from the epidemic in 20q2, reaching a new high; 2) The gross profit margin of the whole year was 27.0% / – 2.7pctyoy in the 21st year, which was mainly due to the slight rise of costs and the increase of annual promotion compared with the 20-year epidemic period, in which the raw materials / direct labor / manufacturing expenses / freight increased by 2.8% / 8.6% / 13.6% respectively year-on-year; Among them, the gross profit margin of single Q4 was 30.0%, which increased by 5.7pct month on month in the traditional peak season; 3) In the 21st year, the sales expense was 901 million yuan / – 9.8% YoY, and the sales expense rate decreased by 1.4pct to 13.0%, mainly due to the optimization of traditional channel structure and the growth of emerging channels; Among them, the sales expense rate of single Q4 was 10.3%, down 5.3pct from 21q3; In the 21st year, the management expense was 197 million yuan / – 15.9% YoY, the management expense rate decreased by 0.5pct to 2.8%, and the single Q4 management expense rate was 2.0% / – 0.6pctyoy.
22q1 continued to improve, adding price increases to release profit elasticity. 22q1 net interest rate attributable to parent company is 11.1% / + 3.6pctyoy, deducting non attributable net interest rate of 10.3% / + 2.9pctyoy, and the improvement trend of profitability continues. The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 31.0% / + 2.4pctyoy, up 1.0pct month on month, mainly due to the price increase of some products since December 21, the rise of hedging costs and the promotion of new products with high gross profit; The sales expense ratio was 14.4% / – 1.8pctyoy, up 4.1pct month on month, and the gross sales difference was 16.6% / + 4.2pcttyoy, mainly due to the continuous increase in the proportion of low-cost distribution and catering revenue.
Considering that the reform results exceeded expectations, we raised the assumptions of revenue and gross profit margin and lowered the assumptions of sales expense ratio. It is predicted that the company’s EPS in 202224 will be 0.84/0.95/1.06 yuan (0.74/0.86 yuan in the 22-23 years before adjustment). According to the 22-year valuation of the comparable company, 31 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 26.04 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The performance of new products is less than expected; Channel reform is less than expected; Food safety incidents; Price rise of raw materials, etc.
