Overall performance of mainland hotels in March: the epidemic situation intensified repeatedly, and RevPAR was only nearly 50% in the same period of 19 years. In March 22, the occupancy rate of Chinese mainland hotels was 42.2%, which was down by 19.7pct compared with 21 in March and down by 23.4pct compared with 19 in March. The average house price was 347 yuan / night, a decrease of 11.5% compared with March 21, and recovered to 73.8% in the same period of 19 years. RevPAR is 146 yuan / room night. Under the condition that the rental rate and average house price have declined, RevPAR has significantly decreased by 39.7% compared with March 21 and recovered to 47.4% in the same period of 19 years.
Performance of medium and high-end hotels in mainland China in March: the rental rate is more resilient, and the recovery of RevPAR is better than the whole. In March 22, the occupancy rate of high-end hotels in Chinese mainland was 44.3%, slightly higher than the overall average level, which declined by 18.0pct compared with 21 in March, and declined by 18.4pct compared with 19 in March. The average house price was 311 yuan / night, a decrease of 5.7% compared with March 21, and recovered to 73.8% in the same period of 19 years. RevPAR is 138 yuan / room night. Under the condition of the decline of rental rate and average house price, RevPAR is significantly reduced by 32.9% compared with March 21 and restored to 51.2% in the same period of 19 years, slightly better than the overall average level.
Conclusion: the fluctuation of the operation data of the mainland hotel industry is still highly related to the spread and recurrence of the epidemic. In March 22, the epidemic intensified repeatedly, and the rental rate and average house price decreased significantly, resulting in a significant decline in RevPAR, which only recovered to nearly 50% in the same period of 19 years. The RevPAR recovery of medium and high-end hotels is better than the overall average level, which is mainly reflected in the smaller decline in the rental rate due to the impact of the epidemic.
Investment suggestion: hotel performance is still greatly affected by the spread of the epidemic, but the overall supply and demand pattern is good, mainly reflected in the clearing of supply. In the months from April to July of 21, when the epidemic was less prevalent, RevPAR overall recovered to more than 80% in the same period of 19 years; With the impact of the epidemic on the supply of the hotel industry (especially single hotels), the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to improve. It has medium and long-term investment logic, including the opportunities for rapid store expansion and structural optimization brought by the improvement of supply and demand pattern and the improvement of chain rate. It is suggested to focus on Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group and Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) .
Risk factors: the impact of repeated epidemic on the tourism industry and the impact of macro-economy on the tourism industry
