Investment suggestion: since March 2022, the national epidemic has blossomed in many places, and more strict sealing and control measures have been taken in many places. Offline consumption has been impacted to a certain extent, and the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has slowed down. At the same time, some regions have taken measures such as city closure, which has led to difficulties in express delivery and delivery, resulting in a sharp narrowing of the growth rate of total sales of wear online goods. 3. April was supposed to be the peak period for changing seasons to buy clothes, but the terminal consumption slowed down in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic. Referring to the recovery of consumption after the unsealing in the second quarter of 2020, we believe that consumer demand has only been suppressed in the short term and has not disappeared. We are optimistic about the recovery of consumption after the epidemic. We suggest paying attention to the leader of medium and high-end accessories Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) ( Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) . SZ), the leader of high-quality sports shoes Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) ( Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) . SZ) Golf apparel faucet Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ( Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) . SZ), Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) ( Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) . SH), Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) ( Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) . SZ), Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) ( Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) . SZ).
Market review: from March 18 to April 18, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.61%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.68%, and the textile and garment (Shenwan) index fell 2.22%, ranking 20th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries. In the secondary industry, the textile manufacturing (Shenwan) index fell 3.36%, and the clothing and home textile (Shenwan) index fell 1.24%.
Industry data tracking: 1) clothing and home textiles: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March 2022 was 3.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, of which the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats was 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. It is estimated that it is mainly due to the serious epidemic situation in some parts of China and the strengthening of sealing and control measures; In terms of export, in March, the export amount of clothing in that month was US $10.224 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%; The export value of textiles in that month was US $11.825 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.40%. It is estimated that it is mainly driven by the rise in the price of upstream raw materials. 2) Textile manufacturing: as of April 18, 2022, China’s cotton price 328 index was 22562 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 121 yuan and a year-on-year increase of 6984 yuan. As of April 14, 2022, the Cotlook a price index was 159.90 cents / pound, with a month on month increase of 22.30 cents and a year-on-year increase of 70.80 cents. Cotton price fluctuations rose, mainly due to the Federal Reserve’s increase in the federal fund interest rate and the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the industry competition intensifies, and the end consumption is less than expected.
