In March, the CSI 300 index fell by 7.8%, and the Shenwan automobile index fell by 11.6%. The short-term performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index. In March, automobile sales were 2.234 million, down 11.7% year-on-year and increasing by '/' / / 28.4% month on month; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 1.864 million, and the repeated epidemic and chip restriction led to a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; The sales of 370000 commercial vehicles decreased by 43.5% year-on-year, and the sales of trucks and buses decreased year-on-year, mainly due to the demand overdraft in the early stage and the high base in the same period. In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 484000, with a year-on-year increase of 114.1%, continuing the high growth trend, and the wholesale and retail penetration rates were as high as 25.1% and 28.2% respectively. In the early stage, affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the suspension of the epidemic, there were many sector pullbacks; Recently, Changchun and Shanghai have gradually resumed work, and the marginal trend is good. It is suggested to focus on investment opportunities such as high-quality parts.
Main points
In March, the wholesale and retail sales of passenger cars decreased. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in March, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 1.814 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, a month on month increase of 23.6%, and the retail sales volume reached 1.579 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%. Affected by the epidemic and price rise, the demand for passenger cars has decreased in the short term; In addition, the impact of the epidemic situation and the small decline in the supply of chips. The shortage of chips is expected to be gradually alleviated. Changchun and Shanghai have resumed work successively, the subsequent production and sales volume is expected to resume growth, and the sector is expected to hit the bottom and pick up. It is suggested to make a positive layout. In March, the sales volume of luxury brand passenger cars in China was 230000, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month on month increase of 43%. The demand for high-end replacement brought by consumption upgrading was still strong, but the epidemic in some regions had an impact on the sales volume. Mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 30% year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the greater impact of chip shortage and the decline of brand attraction. Independent brands increased by 17% year-on-year. Independent head enterprises have strong industrial chain toughness and effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage. In addition, new energy sales have performed well. Among them, Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC and other automobile enterprises have performed relatively well. It is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In March, the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to be under pressure in the short term. According to the data of China Automobile Association, commercial vehicle sales in March were 370000, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%. Among them, 332000 trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 44.8%; Affected by the full implementation of national VI emission in July 2021, some demands are overdrawn in advance, so the sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the treatment of "large ton and small standard" will reduce the single vehicle capacity of the original light truck models exceeding the standard, which is expected to increase the sales of compliant light trucks and medium trucks. Passenger car sales were 38000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%, large passenger increased by 12.8%, medium passenger and light passenger decreased by 24.4% and 31.7% year-on-year. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and economic recovery, it is expected that the sales volume of medium and light buses is expected to recover gradually.
In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year. In March, 484000 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 114.1%, continuing the high growth trend. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 461000, a year-on-year increase of 117.0%, and the wholesale and retail penetration rates were as high as 25.1% and 28.2%; Among them, the popular models of Byd Company Limited(002594) Han / Qin / song / Tang / dolphin, Wuling Hongguang miniev and Tesla Model3 / y make Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla China and SAIC GM Wuling perform well, and relevant auto enterprises and industrial chains are expected to benefit. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 24000, with a year-on-year increase of 69.5%; Among them, 3645 new energy buses above 6 meters were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%, and the sales of Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) , and Jinlong buses ranked among the top three. The follow-up of new energy vehicles is expected to continue high growth. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains.
From January to February, the revenue of the automobile industry decreased slightly and the profit increased rapidly. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to February 2022, the key enterprise groups of automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 625.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; The total profit was 40.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. With the gradual recovery of the auto market, the operating revenue is expected to resume growth, and the cumulative growth rate of total profits may gradually decline.
Investment advice
Complete vehicle: the sales volume of passenger cars has recovered, but the differentiation of car enterprises has intensified. It is recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . Commercial vehicle heavy truck and light truck are expected to maintain a high boom, paying attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) etc.
Parts and components: Recently, affected by the rise of raw material prices and the suspension of epidemic in many places, some stocks have made more corrections, and the current valuation has a strong attraction. With the resumption of work in Changchun and Shanghai, the sector has ushered in better allocation opportunities and is optimistic about the long-term development of high-quality enterprises. It is suggested to lay out individual stocks for product upgrading, customer expansion and undervalued repair, recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co.Ltd(002048) , and pay attention to Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , etc.
New energy: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to explode in 2022, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. Recommend China's leading Byd Company Limited(002594) , as well as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , made by Tesla and Volkswagen MEB, and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc.
Smart Internet connection: ADAS and smart cockpit have penetrated rapidly, and Huawei Xiaomi and other industries have accelerated their development. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) .
Risk tips
1) the automobile sales volume is lower than expected; 2) Shortage and price rise of raw materials; 3) The price of products has been greatly reduced.
