China’s secondary Baijiu market is expanding as a whole. The Baijiu Baijiu liquor industry experienced a deep adjustment, and some small businesses with poor management ability were eliminated by the market, and the industry cleared up. The competitive advantages of high-end liquor and sub Baijiu liquor head enterprises were gradually emerging. In the first half of 2021, the low base superposed epidemic was controlled under the same period of 2020. The demand for terminal liquor of high-end Baijiu has been recovered, and its performance has achieved rapid growth. 2021H1, the second high-end Baijiu business revenue reached 33 billion 604 million yuan, an increase of 46.86% over the same period last year. China’s China Baijiu Baijiu has increased its total operating income in Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size in recent years, increasing from 4.06% in 2016 to 10.06% in 2021H1, and the market of China’s second high-end Baijiu market has been expanding continuously.
Consumption structure transformation + consumption upgrading + urbanization level is improving, and the secondary Baijiu market is facing development opportunities. Baijiu experienced a deep adjustment period, the consumption structure of Chinese Baijiu has changed, the proportion of government consumption has been seriously reduced, the proportion of business consumption has dropped sharply, and the consumption has been changed to mass consumption. Meanwhile, with the upgrading of consumption and the improvement of urbanization, consumers have paid more attention to the quality of Baijiu. More and more consumers are drinking alcohol and drinking wine as the consumption standard of Baijiu. From the consumption trend, the second high-end liquor caters to the consumption upgrading trend of “less alcohol and good wine”, and the future of Baijiu Baijiu liquor has larger room for development.
Investment strategy: maintain the recommended rating for Baijiu industry. This year, the Baijiu market has been affected by factors such as epidemic situation in some areas, external market and other factors. According to the performance data released by the second high-end liquor enterprises, the performance of the Baijiu Baijiu liquor in 2021 is expected to increase rapidly based on the low base in 2020. In addition, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) 2022 had a better start than expected. The dynamic sales performance of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , shede and other companies’ core products during the Spring Festival was good, and the performance in the first quarter is worth looking forward to. In the medium to long term, the secondary Baijiu Baijiu has great potential for growth in the secondary high-end liquor price expansion, expansion of the national market, upgrading of product mix and expansion of production capacity. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ( Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ( Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ), Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) ), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ( Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ), Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ( Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ), etc.
Risk tip: product price increase is less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, macroeconomic impact, etc.
