In March, China's demand was strong, and the sales volume of Q1 greatly exceeded the market expectation, laying the foundation for the high growth of the whole year. According to the caliber of China Automobile Association, 484000 electric vehicles were sold in March, with a month on month ratio of + 114.2% / + 44.9% and a penetration rate of 21.7%, slightly exceeding the market expectation. 1.257 million vehicles were sold in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 138.6%. We maintained the annual sales expectation of 6 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 70% +. In March, 83000 electric vehicles were sold in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 66% / + 19%, in line with market expectations. In Q1, 215100 electric vehicles were sold in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 72.39% / + 99.26%. We expect the sales volume to double by 1.3 million in 2022. In March, the mainstream countries in Europe sold a total of 206000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 7% / + 61%, the overall penetration rate of 29.4%, and a month on month ratio of + 5.8 / + 2.4pct. We expect the sales volume in Europe to be 2.7 million vehicles + in 2022, an increase of 30% + at the same time. In 2022, the global sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million, an increase of 60% +.
The epidemic impacted the sales volume and production scheduling from April to may, but did not change the long-term good trend of the industrial chain. Affected by the epidemic, Tesla, velai, SAIC and other auto enterprises stopped production / reduced production, and the logistics and supply chain were impacted. Since mid and late April, auto enterprises are ready to gradually resume production. We expect that the production of electric vehicles will be reduced by 30% in April, which will affect 9 Shahe Industrial Co.Ltd(000014) 0000 vehicles, and the sales volume will drop to 33 Shenzhen Capstone Industrial Co.Ltd(000038) 0000 vehicles. The sales volume increased slightly month on month in May, recovered to 500000 vehicles in June, and the sales volume in Q2 is flat month on month. In terms of industrial production scheduling, the industrial production scheduling in April was still affected by the epidemic, and the production scheduling of battery leading enterprises fell by about 20% month on month. However, the demand of overseas customers of material enterprises is good, and the production scheduling month on month is basically flat. It is expected that the production scheduling will resume in May, the growth will accelerate in June, and the annual growth of leading enterprises is expected to double.
The price of upstream raw materials has slowed down, and the second round of price increases of battery and automobile enterprises has opened the transmission cost pressure. As the price increase of lithium carbonate and other raw materials exceeded expectations, the Q2 industrial chain opened a second round of price increase, and the secondary increase of battery manufacturers was generally 20% - 30%, which has led to most cost increases. Car companies started the second round of price increase at the same time, with an increase of about 10000 yuan, covering 50% - 70% of the cost increase, and there is great pressure on short-term profits. However, since April, the price of lithium carbonate has gradually stabilized and fallen, hexafluoride has continued to decline, the cost side is expected to decline, and the battery price may be loosened under the linkage pricing mechanism, so as to alleviate the profit pressure of vehicle enterprises. We believe that it is unlikely to increase the price in three rounds of short-term low prices; The battery terminal is expected to usher in a profit inflection point for 22h2, which will release great profit elasticity after the loosening of raw material prices in 23 years.
Investment suggestion: Q1, the core company of electric vehicles, has a brilliant performance, and its valuation has dropped to the bottom. The 22-year high outlook continues, and the leader is expected to increase by 80-100%. We continue to look at the leader of electric vehicles in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link of profit restoration in 22 years, with a good long-term pattern, superimposed energy storage holdings, leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , The second main line: battery technology upgrading, high nickel ternary ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third article is the leading of the continuous shortage: the diaphragm ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ); Article 4: lithium is in short supply and the price is higher than expected. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , etc.
Risk tip: price competition exceeds market expectations, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, declining investment growth and the impact of the epidemic.
