\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 678 Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) )
The performance in 2021 was the best in history, and the carbon 3 and carbon 4 project helped the company grow
According to the company's announcement, in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 9.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.53%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220.57%. In Q1 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.07%. The company's performance in 2021 is basically in line with expectations. At the same time, considering the decline in the profitability of propylene oxide products in 2022, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 17.46 (- 3.29), 2.233 (- 3.58) and 2.583 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 0.85 (- 0.21), 1.09 (- 0.23) and 1.26 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE in 20222024 will be 7.5, 5.8 and 5.0 times respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the growth space brought by the company's carbon 3 and carbon 4 project after it is put into operation, and maintain the "buy" rating.
The impairment loss dragged down the performance of 2021q4, the price of caustic soda rose, and the performance of 2022q1 company was still good
According to the company's announcement, in 2021q4, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 216 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 49.98%, which is mainly due to the impairment loss of thermal assets in the Yellow River Delta of 476 million yuan accrued by the company at the end of the year. If this factor is excluded, the company's 2021q4 performance will achieve significant month on month growth. At the same time, in 2021, the company achieved remarkable results in the battle of reaching the standard and reaching the production capacity. The capacity utilization rates of trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene, lithium hexafluorophosphate and epichlorohydrin increased by 6.33pct, 15.07pct, 25.77pct and 15.2pct respectively, further contributing to the high growth of the company's performance. In Q1 2022, although the price of propylene oxide declined, the company's single quarter performance was still good due to the high profitability of caustic soda products.
The carbon three and carbon four project is about to be launched, and the company has outstanding growth attributes
According to the company's announcement, at present, the company's carbon 3 and carbon 4 comprehensive utilization project is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed and put into operation in October 2022. Meanwhile, in order to optimize the product structure and extend the industrial chain, the company plans to adjust the process of the new propylene oxide unit from the original 300000 t / a propylene oxide co production 780000 T / a tert butyl alcohol unit to 240000 T / a propylene oxide co production 742000 T / a methyl tert butyl ether unit. With the gradual commissioning of the company's carbon 3 and carbon 4 project, the company's performance is expected to usher in a centralized release.
Risk tip: production capacity release is less than expected, downstream demand slows down, and product prices fall sharply.
