\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 063 Anhui Wanwei Updated High-Tech Material Industry Co.Ltd(600063) )
The performance of 22q1 hit a record high, the PVA boom continued, and the performance of Q2 is expected to continue to improve.
The high growth of performance in the first quarter of this year is mainly due to the increase of sales volume of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), the expansion of price difference and the significant improvement of overall profitability. In terms of sales volume, the PVA sales volume of 22q1 company is 56200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 11600 tons and a month on month increase of + 17000 tons. The sales volume is not light in the off-season. We think it may be due to the sharp rise in the price of 21q4pva and the weak willingness of downstream dealers to take goods, which leads to the replenishment of Q1 this year. At the price level, the average selling price of PVA of 22q1 company was 19600 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69.03% and a month on month increase of 1.78%. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, we calculated that the price difference of 22q1 PVA calcium carbide was 12600 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 6300 yuan / ton and a month on month increase of -0500 yuan / ton. As of April 16, the average market price of PVA was 23300 yuan / ton, and the price difference of PVA calcium carbide was 15000 yuan / ton, which was still higher than Q1. In terms of cement clinker, according to the company’s Q1 financial report, the company’s clinker sales during the reporting period were only 50000 tons, which decreased significantly on a month on month basis. We believe that it is mainly affected by the scenery of Q1 real estate and infrastructure. It is expected that with the continuous implementation of the steady growth plan, the cement clinker Q2 will be improved on a month on month basis. In addition, considering that the overall supply and demand pattern of PVA industry is in a tight balance and the cost of ethylene PVA increases under the background of high oil price, the boom situation of high PVA price is expected to continue Anhui Wanwei Updated High-Tech Material Industry Co.Ltd(600063) it is equipped with 450000 tons of calcium carbide with strong cost control ability. We are optimistic about the integrated layout of “calcium carbide vinyl acetate PVA” of the company and believe that the profitability of the company’s main businesses is expected to continue well.
New projects are put into operation, enabling growth, and the 14th five year plan recreates the new dimension of Anhui.
According to the company’s previous announcement, the company has established the development goal of the company’s “five industrial chains” according to the “14th five year plan”. The company’s annual output of 10000 tons of PVB resin project has reached the production standard, and the product quality ranks in the forefront of the industry; The annual output of 35000 tons of differentiated polyester project has been successfully tested at one time; The trial run of the project with an annual output of 20000 tons of rubber powder was successful. In addition, the company will accelerate the progress of the construction projects. The annual output of 60 thousand tons of VAE lotion, 5000 tons of membrane level PVA, 7 million square meter polarizer, 7 million square meters PVA optical film and other projects will soon be put into operation, and gradually form a new material industry cluster of the company, laying the solid foundation for the “forge ahead in 14th Five-Year and rebuild new Wan Wei”. We are optimistic about the layout of the company’s new projects and believe that with the orderly production of new projects, while expanding its business line, the company’s profitability is expected to continue to rise.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leader in China’s PVA industry. PVA products have great advantages over their peers in scale, category and technology. In addition, the new material fields such as PVA optical film and PVB resin actively arranged by the company are expected to open a growth channel for the company. We are optimistic about the company’s strategic layout and technical strength. It is estimated that the company’s net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.386 billion yuan, 1.558 billion yuan and 1.772 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41.14%, 12.37% and 13.78%, corresponding to PE of 9.09, 8.09 and 7.11 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The prices of raw materials and products fluctuate greatly; Exchange rate and trade risks; Brain drain risk; Environmental protection policy risk, etc.
