\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the operating revenue in 2021 was 10.148 billion yuan, yoy + 24.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, yoy-19.81%. The decline in net profit was mainly due to the provision of 765 million yuan of credit impairment loss. 1q22 company achieved operating revenue of 2.086 billion yuan, yoy + 9.32%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 368 million yuan, yoy + 2.47%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 336 million, yoy + 4.27%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) to shareholders for every 10 shares, with a cash dividend rate of 35.5% 5%。 The company announced the stock option incentive plan in 2022. The exercise conditions are based on the operating income in 2021, and the compound annual growth rate of operating income from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 15%.
Comments:
Driven by the price of traditional categories, emerging categories are growing rapidly. According to the total data of aoweitui, the retail sales of range hood / gas stove / dishwasher industry in 2021 were + 4% / 2% / 14% year-on-year respectively. By product, in 2021, the revenue growth rate of boss range hood / gas stove / dishwasher / integrated steaming and baking machine was + 19% / 27% / 101% / 71% respectively. The growth of the company’s traditional categories is significantly better than that of the industry. According to the monthly data of Aowei, the growth of the company’s online / offline retail volume of range hoods in 2021 was – 1% / + 3% and the average price growth was + 7% / + 13% respectively. It is inferred that the growth of traditional categories may be mainly driven by price increases. In 2021, the company’s emerging categories continued to grow rapidly, and the revenue proportion of the second and third categories increased to 19.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.1pcts. In half a year, the revenue growth of dishwasher / steaming and baking machine 21h2 was + 80% / 58% respectively, and the growth rate decreased slightly after the base increased. From the perspective of different channels, the revenue growth of different channels in 2021 from large to small are direct sales, consignment sales and Engineering (year-on-year + 39% / + 19% / + 7%). The higher growth of direct sales (e-commerce) channels is mainly due to 1) accelerated iterative upgrading of categories and online / offline sharing of advantageous products, 2) mutual drainage between new and old media platforms, and content-based marketing to deeply tap user value.
The provision of asset impairment loss caused the decline of net interest rate, and the overall operation is still stable. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 52.35% (yoy-3.8pcts), of which 4q21 gross profit margin was 43.73% (- 10.4pcts), 1q22 gross profit margin was 52.56% (- 4.8pcts). 4q21 and 1q22 fell sharply, mainly due to the adjustment of accounting policies and the continuous high cost of raw materials. In 2021, the sales expense rate was yoy-2.2pcts, of which the “gross profit margin – sales expense rate” of 4q21 and 1q22 was -3.3pcts / – 1.6pcts year-on-year. The decline of gross sales difference was relatively flat. The company actively controlled the expenses to deal with the external environment. The company’s 4q21 / 1q22 net interest rates were – 22pct / – 1pcts respectively year-on-year. The sharp decline in Q4 net interest rate last year was mainly due to asset impairment loss (accrual of accounts receivable of leading real estate enterprises). Due to the thorough accrual, the impairment risk narrowed significantly in 2022. In terms of balance sheet, prepayments / payables at the end of 2021 were + 88% / + 25% higher than that at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the increase in relevant payments for purchasing raw materials in the current period. At the end of the year, the self owned cash reached 6.7 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of the total assets; In the 21st year, the net operating cash was 1.37 billion yuan, and the company’s overall operation was in good condition.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: while maintaining the leading position of traditional categories, the boss has actively developed the second growth curve. At the same time, based on the policy tone of “steady growth” since this year, we are optimistic about the medium and long-term development of the company. Due to the economic uncertainty caused by the rising epidemic in China since March, and considering that the recovery rate of residents’ income may be slow, we lowered the net profit forecast for 20222023 to 2.15 billion yuan and 2.39 billion yuan (5.3% and 10.8% lower than the previous forecast), and increased the net profit forecast for 2024 to 2.58 billion yuan. The current share price corresponding to PE is 13, 12 and 11 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of new products is less than expected, real estate sales continue to decline, and raw material prices rise.
