\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 179 Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) )
Report guide
Inventory and personnel have increased greatly, and the expansion of new regions has achieved initial results. We believe that a good foundation will be laid in terms of inventory and personnel capacity-building in 2021, and we are optimistic about the high growth of 2022 company under the low base.
Key investment points
Performance overview: coordinated development of various application scenarios in reagent sector
In 2021, the company's revenue was 288 million yuan, yoy 22.5 million yuan 82%, net profit attributable to parent company 89.36 million, yoy 20.00 06% (the tax rate problem was solved, and the faster report increased by about 4.7 million). The gross profit margin was 62.27%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.32 PCT; The net interest rate was 31.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72pct. Q4 single quarter revenue of 90.09 million, yoy 21.9 million 29%，QOQ33. 78%, the annual cash flow from operating activities was 15 million, yoy-81.57%, which was mainly affected by the high growth of inventories and accounts receivable.
Growth: the marginal impact of ERP is weakened, and the large increase of inventory lays the foundation for high growth in 2022
Due to the impact of ERP operation cycle and low stock, the company's Q2 and Q3 revenue in 2021 was slightly lower than expected. From the perspective of 2021q4 revenue, the impact is gradually weakened. At the same time, we found that the inventory of Q4 company in a single quarter increased by 35 million month on month in 2021, and the inventory at the end of 2021 increased by 80 million compared with the beginning of the period. Based on the company's inventory driven business model, we believe that the company's revenue in 2022 is expected to show a year-on-year high growth under a low base.
Profitability: the expense rate is high in 2021, and the gross profit margin may continue to increase under the improvement of product structure in 2022
In 2021, driven by the improvement of product structure, the gross profit rate of the company increased slightly; Affected by the increase of R & D expense rate and sales rate, the net interest rate decreased year-on-year. We found that the company added 156 new employees in 2021, while only 23 and 8 new employees in 2019 and 2020. After the IPO, the capacity building was significantly accelerated. Among them, the R & D and production personnel increased by 83 and the sales personnel increased by 27, which led to a significant increase in the R & D and sales expense rate of the company in 2021 and laid the foundation for the year-on-year high growth of revenue in 2022. We believe that in 2022, the gross profit margin of the company may be driven by the increase of the proportion of biological reagents, and the expense rate will decrease slightly with the gradual maturity of the sales network, the increase of interest income of convertible bonds and the increase of equity incentive expenses.
Cash flow analysis: inventory and accounts receivable increase, and 2022 is ready to go
In 2021, the company's cash flow from operating activities was 15 million yuan, yoy-81.57%, far lower than the net profit, which was mainly affected by the high growth of inventory and accounts receivable. The company's inventory at the end of 2021 was 181 million, an increase of 80 million over the end of 2020, compared with yoy2000% of the added value in 2020. At the same time, in terms of the significant growth of accounts payable and prepayments, we also see the company's determination to rapidly increase inventory and lay a high growth foundation in the future. We believe that 2021 is the first year of the company's listing. The company has seized the opportunity and laid a good foundation for preparing inventory, expanding regions, laying channels and building capacity. We are optimistic about the high growth of the company's income in 2022 and the next three years as an inventory driven high-end scientific research reagent company.
Biological reagent may be a new bright spot for growth and open up a user base for multi regional expansion
In 2021, the company invested and established a wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) Biological Reagent Co., Ltd. to carry out biological reagent R & D business. In 2022, after the gradual establishment of R & D and distribution network, the company will increase product categories around recombinant proteins and recombinant antibodies to promote sales growth. In terms of regional expansion, the company has basically completed the construction of four national storage systems in 2021, which can cover the needs of customers all over the country. 2022 will effectively expand areas outside East China and drive the overall high growth of the company with the help of the established storage network.
Profit forecast and valuation
In view of the company's significantly increased inventory and personnel, we predict that the company is expected to achieve high growth under a low base in 2022. From 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 134 million, 179 million and 239 million respectively, and yoy was 49.9 million 73%, 33.99% and 33.30%, corresponding to the closing price on April 20, 2022. PE in 2022 is about 42 times. We are optimistic about the company's high growth in 2022 under the low base brought by the large increase of inventory and personnel and the gradual maturity of warehouse laying. Maintain the "overweight" rating with reference to the valuation of comparable companies and industry status.
Risk tips
Personnel mobility risk in the process of category expansion; Safety risk in logistics process; The uncertainty risk brought by the new e-commerce model to the company's brand.
