\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. In 21 years, the company realized a total operating revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19.8%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 19.4%. 22q1 company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.5%; Deduct 340 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%. The revenue and performance in the first quarter basically met expectations. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 5 for every 10 shares to all shareholders based on 944 million shares.
In the past 21 years, the company has come out of the trough and returned to medium and high-speed growth, with good performance in all categories. 1) Traditional category: the leading position is stable and the share is increasing. In 21 years, the revenue of range hood and stove was + 18.7% / + 27.3% year-on-year respectively, outperforming the overall sales growth of the industry (according to the total data of aoweitui, the retail sales of range hood industry was + 4% year-on-year and stove was – 9%); 2) Emerging categories: vigorous development, showing high growth. In 21 years, the company’s revenue of the second / third product group was + 35.8% / + 57.9% respectively, of which the growth rate of all-in-one machine, dishwasher and water heater was bright, and the annual revenue was + 71.3% / + 101.3% / + 172.6% year-on-year respectively (the offline retail share of Ovi embedded steaming and baking all-in-one machine and embedded dishwasher was ranked first and second). In terms of channels, the revenue from consignment / distribution / direct sales / Engineering / other channels was + 19.2% / + 9.8% / + 39.1% / + 7.0% / + 286.0% respectively, accounting for 31.7% / 4.3% / 41.1% / 22.7% / 0.2% respectively. It should be noted that in the past 21 years, the company has significantly reduced its dependence on engineering channels and achieved rapid income growth. We think it is a more benign channel structure.
The high cost of raw materials + large amount of bad debt provision led to a sharp decline in performance in 21 years. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was 52.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.8pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 13.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -7.3pct. The performance declined significantly in the past 21 years. Although the expenses have been optimized (the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio in the past 21 years was 24.2% / 3.6% / 3.6% / – 1.4%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.2 / – 0.1 / – 0.1 / + 0.5pct), the rising cost of raw materials and the provision of large amount of bad debt reserves have damaged the performance. The company’s provision for impairment in 2021 totaled about 780 million yuan, including 100% provision for accounts receivable + Notes of Evergrande group (660 million yuan) and about 120 million yuan for other customers. We believe that the risk release caused by the channel operation of preliminary projects is relatively sufficient. We estimate that excluding the impact of bad debt impairment loss of real estate customers in 21 years and considering income tax, the company’s actual operating net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 1.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.0%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 19.6%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.8pct. 22q1 revenue increased steadily and profitability was gradually restored. 22q1 company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.5%, and the revenue and performance basically met the expectations. In terms of channels, we expect the revenue of e-commerce channels to increase by more than 20%, the median single digit growth of retail channels, and the revenue of Engineering channels to decline significantly after careful operation. The raw material cost of Q1 company is still at a high level. Affected by this, the gross profit margin of Q1 is – 4.8pct to 52.6% year-on-year. The cost side pressure urges the company to actively control the expenses. The Q1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 29.0% / 4.0% / 3.2% / – 1.5%, which is – 3.2 / + 0.3 / + 0.2 / – 0.1pct year-on-year. From the perspective of gross sales difference, the gross sales difference of 22q1 is -1.6pct year-on-year, which has narrowed compared with -3.3pct of 21q4, and the profitability of the operating end has improved. Under the comprehensive influence, the company realized the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in Q1 of 17.6%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.2pct.
Investment suggestion: the leading position of the company’s traditional smoke stove is stable, and the advantages of channel and brand strength are significant; High growth category dishwasher + steamer and roaster continue to be in high volume, and the penetration space is broad in the long run; The company has recently entered the high boom integrated stove market. The new varieties are expected to contribute considerable revenue increment by relying on a solid channel foundation and brand strength, help achieve the 22-year revenue 15% + growth incentive target, and are optimistic about the company’s high-quality and outstanding business ability and steady and sustainable growth space. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 2.216/25.75/3.008 billion yuan (the value was 2.216/2.538 billion yuan 22-23 years ago). The current stock price corresponds to 12.9x/11.1x/9.5xpe in 22-24 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; The risk of fluctuations in the real estate market; The risk of intensified market competition.
