\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 50 Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) )
Downstream battery enterprises continue to expand production, and the company has full orders in hand. According to the capacity planning of overseas and Chinese head battery enterprises, we expect that the new battery capacity will be about 557, 616, 464 and 663gwh from 2022 to 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65%, 44%, 23% and 27%. In addition, we predict that the global installed energy storage capacity will be 297gwh by 2025, and the installed energy storage capacity in China is expected to reach 98gwh. The explosion of energy storage demand will continue to push up the high outlook of the equipment industry. The company said that the new orders signed in the first three quarters of 2021 were 12.3 billion yuan (excluding tax). The newly signed orders in the third quarter alone are 3.1 billion yuan (excluding tax), and the whole year is expected to exceed 15 billion yuan (excluding tax).
It has won the priority of 50% of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) equipment investment in the next three years and successfully entered the global supply chain system. In 2021, the company completed the fixed increase to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Ningde held 7.15% equity and became the third largest shareholder of the company, and proposed to give priority to the leader in the next three years at an amount not less than 50% of the new investment in core equipment for cell production. The raised funds will be mainly used for South China headquarters manufacturing base project, lithium battery intelligent manufacturing digital overall solution R & D and industrialization project, etc. We believe that this strategic increase will help the company consolidate its industry competitiveness, enhance its profitability, and strengthen the company's core competitiveness and technological innovation ability in the field of lithium battery equipment. In addition to Ningde, the company's customers also include northvolt, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , AVIC lithium battery, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , honeycomb energy, Toyota, BMW and other global leading lithium battery enterprises and first-line car enterprises.
Technological innovation keeps the industry leading. The company laid out the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industry in advance to seize the golden development period. In 2009, the company entered the photovoltaic equipment industry, successfully developed the cylindrical battery automatic winding machine in 15 years, first developed the integrated equipment in 16 years, launched the whole line solution of lithium battery equipment in 18 years, launched the world's first hydrogen fuel roll to roll membrane electrode production line in 2020, and launched the whole line solution of large cylindrical battery series in 2021. Its R & D and innovation ability has always maintained the leading position in the industry.
Investment advice
Under the tide of global electrification, the company, as a leading enterprise of lithium battery equipment, has successfully entered the global supply chain system. It is expected that its future profits will fully benefit from the substantial expansion of downstream lithium battery enterprises. At the same time, the company will build a high-end equipment R & D platform, and new products and applications will continue to contribute new performance growth points. We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1603 / 2679 / 4496 million. With reference to comparable companies, the company is given 35 times PE in 2022, the target market value is 93.7 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 60 yuan / share.
Risk tips
The subsidy policy of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the risk of slowing down production expansion caused by excess battery capacity, the risk of increasing the turnover days of accounts receivable, and the risk of goodwill impairment.
