\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
The main brand focuses on sensitive muscles, brand strength precipitation + product fission to create a high ceiling. As the leader of China's efficacy skin care products, the company's revenue in 2021 was about 4.02 billion yuan (YoY + 53%), the main brand "Winona" accounted for more than 98%, and the proportion of focus sensitive muscle in dermatological grade market increased to about 24%. The product layout extends around the "sensitivity +" effect, and updates the anti aging essence to the formula version of the "light bottle". In 2022, the new product was developed with academic orientation and market demand orientation. It focused on creating the family series with the high Maori essence. Combined with the different portraits of the different channels, the online emphasis was on the rich categories of whitening / repairing red series, and the line focused on collagen and barrier repair series. The organizational structure of the channel side was refined and upgraded. In 2021, the online revenue was 3.3 billion yuan (YoY + 51.9%), accounting for 82%. Through the e-commerce / social media platform and self built private domain traffic pool, it contributed to high growth; The offline revenue is 710 million yuan (YoY + 57.8%), and we are deeply engaged in OTC / hospital and other professional channels to maintain the brand tone and develop new retail to improve output. The main brand is still in a period of rapid growth. In the future, it is expected to continue to benefit from the high growth of the track, and precipitate the brand strength through product fission and expansion circle + channel operation upgrading, so as to strengthen the competitive advantage, create a high ceiling and impact the global market.
Multiple brands expand steadily, and Winona baby + aoxmed is expected to contribute to a new growth pole. The company expands the brand matrix around the efficacy of skin care and creates a unique methodology of "brand positioning + Commercial landing". The brand matrix has its own characteristics and can cooperate with each other. Winona baby is positioned as a professional skincare for infants and young children, which can effectively cooperate with the main brand groups. It was listed in the top 10 of tmall baby and children's skincare in 2021 double 11 for the first time, with an increase of more than 10 times. In 22 years, it will focus on building a separate skincare upgrading product line. In addition, the company will launch aoxmed, a high-end anti-aging brand, focusing on the whole cortex anti-aging black technology. The price band is positioned at more than 1000 yuan. The channel end takes the medical and American institutions as the cut-off entrance, aims at the origin population, establishes a word-of-mouth effect, and then gradually expands to online volume. The group's medical research technology capability and efficient organizational structure can jointly provide bottom support for the multi brand system. Aoxmed and Winona baby are expected to contribute to the second and third growth poles.
Based on the strength of medical research + plant resources, gradually precipitate a large and healthy ecological landscape Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) enterprises set a high position, took the ecological layout of large consumption as a long-term strategic plan, created an overall skin health solution of "effective skin care products + medical beauty + service platform", and opened the layout of functional food track. In 2021, the R & D investment reached 113 million yuan, and the number of R & D personnel increased to 236. They took the lead in the construction of Yunnan characteristic plant extraction laboratory and made full use of plant resources for industrialization, The ecological landscape of great health has gradually precipitated. In the future, with the continuous enhancement of the group's R & D and industrialization strength, it is expected to gradually expand the overseas market from Southeast Asia through mergers and acquisitions / going to sea, create super product strength, participate in global competition and set a benchmark.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company is committed to building a healthy ecological landscape, starting from sensitive skin care, opening the layout of high-end anti-aging and other tracks, and forming a unique brand building methodology for commercial implementation based on the strength of medical research and Yunnan plant resources. Based on the performance of main brands and the expansion plan of new brands, we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.56374359775 billion yuan, with an increase of 38.3% / 33.6% / 31.5% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.20816362177 billion yuan, with an increase of 40.0% / 35.4% / 33.1% respectively. The current market value is 73.7 billion yuan, which corresponds to 61 times of PE in 2022 and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the brand is relatively concentrated, the promotion of new brands is less than expected, the risk of product quality management and the intensification of industry competition.
