\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 885 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) )
Operating data: ask and RPK increased year-on-year in 2021, with a net increase of 12 aircraft
1) operation: in 2021, ask and RPK of the company increased by + 15.3% and + 16.0% respectively year-on-year, with a seating rate of 75.65% and + 0.5pct year-on-year. In Q4, ask and RPK of the company were – 9.2% and – 23.0% respectively year-on-year, and the seating rate was 68.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2pct. Affected by the repeated epidemic, ask and RPK recovered to 89% and 78% in 2019 in 2021, and the seating rate recovered to 88.8% in 2019. Considering only China, ask and RPK of the company increased by + 20% and + 19% respectively in 2021 and + 6% and – 7% respectively in 2019. 2) Aircraft fleet: in 2021, the company’s net increase in the number of aircraft was 12, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.2%. According to the company’s plan, the company plans to net increase 7 aircraft in 22 years and introduce 11 and 10 aircraft in 23-24 years respectively.
Revenue performance: the loss expanded in the second half of the year and the revenue of passenger kilometers increased in the whole year
Revenue side: in 2021, due to the repeated impact of Q1 local new year, Q3 and Q4 epidemic, the overall revenue showed the best in Q2 and Q3 and the worst in Q1 and Q4. In 2021, the annual passenger kilometer revenue was 0.409 yuan / + 3.4%, of which China was 0.398 yuan / + 7.4%. In addition, the company restarted the international “passenger to cargo” charter business in October 2021, realizing a freight revenue of 510 million yuan / – 18%.
Cost side: in 2021, the oil price showed an upward trend quarter by quarter. The average CIF price of imported kerosene throughout the year was 4356 yuan, an increase of 39% year-on-year. From the quarter, the oil price in Q4 rose 91% year-on-year to 5181 yuan. The company’s fuel cost is 3.34 billion yuan / + 53%, the unit ask fuel cost is 0.093 yuan / + 33%, and the unit ask non fuel cost is 0.221 yuan / – 9%. Among them, the Civil Aviation Development Fund increased by 160 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the resumption of the collection of Civil Aviation Development Fund in 2021; The cost of abnormal flights is 120 million yuan / + 107%, which is mainly due to the substantial increase in the number of flight cancellations, the transfer of passengers to foreign airlines and the increase in passenger compensation. In addition, due to the continuous appreciation of RMB, the company’s net exchange gain in 2021 was about 220 million yuan, an increase of 70 million yuan year-on-year.
Asset structure: in 2021, the company’s asset liability ratio increased quarter by quarter, reaching 76.97% at the end of the year, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.66pct. Jiuyuan Airlines: in 2021, the company increased the capital of its holding subsidiary Jiuyuan Airlines by 800 million yuan, with an annual income of 67.78 million yuan and a loss of 16.06 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the judgment of the “14th five year plan” of civil aviation, 20212022 is the recovery period and savings period of the industry. We believe that after the recovery period and savings period, the industry will usher in a recovery cycle. With the continuous slowdown of the supply growth of the whole industry in 20-22 years, we believe that the future market pattern will continue to recover and continue the trend of the strong and the strong. The company will benefit from the industry recovery cycle and have high medium and long-term growth. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be RMB 110 million, RMB 1.07 billion and RMB 2.57 billion respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The recovery progress of covid-19 epidemic was less than expected, the industry demand was less than expected, and the oil price rose sharply.
