\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 216 Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and realized a revenue of 6.943 billion yuan in 2021, yoy + 0.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 641 million yuan, yoy-16.55%; Deduct the non net profit of 551 million yuan, yoy-3.44%.
Revenue is in line with expectations, and new business continues to increase. The revenue of single Q4 company is 1.864 billion yuan, yoy + 8.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 255 million yuan, yoy + 29.37%; Deduct 241 million yuan of non net profit, yoy + 39.02%. In terms of annual split, 1) category: rice noodle food decreased slightly following the contraction of supermarket channels. Quick frozen rice noodles, prepared food and refrigerated short-term food achieved revenue of 6.03/7.5/120 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.2% / + 42.0% / + 40.1% respectively. Among them, the traditional categories of Tangyuan dumplings and zongzi were - 8.1% year-on-year, and the pastry was + 10.4% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the company's adjustment of product structure in supermarkets, cutting off low gross profit products and increasing high gross profit products. According to the split of volume and price, the sales of quick-frozen rice noodles, prepared and refrigerated short-term food were - 1.7% / + 15.8% / + 31.6% year-on-year, and the prices were - 1.5% / + 22.6% / + 6.5% year-on-year. 2) Sub BC end: the green label at B end continues to expand. The company's C-end and b-end revenue were - 3.6% / 24.6% year-on-year respectively, and the b-end business was well developed, accounting for 16.9% of the revenue, 3.3pct year-on-year. 3) Sub channel: the channel reform is carried out step by step, and the structure of Ka direct marketing is optimized. Distribution, direct marketing and direct e-commerce were + 4.9% / - 15.8% / + 76.2% year-on-year respectively. The gross profit margin of channels is basically the same, but the cost investment of Ka direct channels is high, so the proportion of direct channels continues to decline, which significantly drives the improvement of profitability. In 2021, direct channels accounted for 23.3% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of -4.4pct.
Product structure optimization + channel reform + price increase + cost decline jointly promoted the significant increase of non deduction net interest rate. The company's annual net interest rate was 9.22%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.75pct. In Q4 alone, the company's net interest rate was 13.69%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.23pct; Deduct non net interest rate of 12.96%, year-on-year + 2.87pct. Among them, the gross profit margin is 30.02%, the sales expense rate is 10.32%, and the gross sales difference is 19.71%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.74pct (the caliber is slightly different due to the change of accounting standards in 21 / 22). Considering that it is mainly caused by channel reform + product structure optimization, at the same time, the price of pork, the company's main raw material, has decreased + Q4 price increase to alleviate the rising pressure of oil, rice and other costs, so the gross sales difference has increased significantly. The management expense rate was 2.04%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.6pct, mainly due to the impact of changes in internal personnel salary and funds; The R & D expense ratio was 1.54%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.46pct. The financial expense rate was -0.06%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.25pct. In addition, the proportion of credit impairment / revenue was 0.22%, contributing 1.2pct to the increase of net interest rate, which was mainly due to the impact of the change of receivable transaction balance at the end of the period.
Product structure optimization and channel reform continued to advance, and the profitability reached a new level. In the past 21 years, the company has continued to focus on promoting channel reform and sinking, combing the value chain of product lines and channel suitability, and launching products with lower prices and more suitable for low-level cities for sinking (second tier brand fumanji); Adjust the product structure of direct channels and launch high gross profit products to replace low gross profit products. In terms of products, new products such as rice noodles, excavated bags and fillings, such as Hangzhou xiaolongbao; Hot pot ingredients are mainly meat, and new products such as sausage and crispy meat are launched; At the same time, we will develop new quick-frozen convenience food tracks such as air fryer and fried rice, and layout and grow new categories. In terms of channels, major developers of hot pot ingredients expand the market, continue to shrink the proportion of direct channel sales, and optimize the channel structure. We expect the company's profitability to reach a new level under the background of double optimization of product channel structure and low pork cost.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company's short-term performance is under pressure, and the medium and long-term channel reform continues to improve. In recent years, the company has made a series of positive changes and adjustments from internal mechanism to business strategy and channels, superimposed equity incentives and investment in new production capacity, and the company's income is expected to achieve benign and high-quality growth. According to the performance of the company's latest annual report and recent channel research, taking into account the accelerated optimization of the company's product channel structure, the superposition of the downward cost of pork and the catalysis of the epidemic, we raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue will be RMB 7.76/85.7/9.43 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.7% / 10.5% / 10.0%, the expected net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 7.4/8.3/9.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.6% / 12.2% / 10.1%, and EPS will be RMB 0.84/0.95/1.04 respectively (0.66/0.76 in the previous 22-23 years), The corresponding PE is 22x, 20x and 18x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, risk of food safety events and price fluctuation of raw materials.
