\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Key investment points
The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 was 916 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 111.92% / – 4.83%, in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 2.592 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 79.62% / – 1.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 916 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 111.92% / – 4.83%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 878 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 116.91% / – 6.42%; The gross profit margin of Q1 in 2022 was 48.54%, with a month on month ratio of + 0.03pct / – 4.53pct. The month on month decrease was mainly due to the inclusion of some bonuses and overtime into operating costs; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 35.32%, with a month on month ratio of + 5.38pct / – 1.08pct. The company previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 was 865950 million yuan, and the Q1 performance was above the median value in the forecast, which was in line with market expectations.
2022q1 shipped 1.1 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase. The annual shipment in 2022 is expected to be 80% + high growth. In 2022q1, we expect the shipment of the company to be about 1.1 billion square meters, with a ring increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 140% +. The production scheduling in April further improved month on month. The epidemic affected logistics or slightly affected production scheduling, but we still maintain optimistic expectations throughout the year. We expect that with the release of the company’s production capacity, the annual shipment of the company in 2022 is expected to exceed 5.5 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 80% +. In terms of profitability, the company’s 2022q1 diaphragm single flat return profit to the parent company was about 0.8 yuan / flat, down 10% month on month, mainly due to the company’s Q1 withdrawal of 100 million + year-end bonus. If it is added back, the single flat net profit will further increase to about 0.9 yuan / flat month on month. Considering the increase of the company’s coating proportion, the increase of the proportion of overseas customers and the release of online coating capacity, we expect the annual single flat profit to remain above 0.9 yuan / flat, which can be maintained at a high level.
The company’s capacity expansion is leading, the product structure is further improved, and the layout of dry process diaphragm and aluminum-plastic film will contribute new increment in the future. In 2022, the industry is in short supply, the industrial capacity utilization rate remains high, the company’s capacity expansion speed is leading, and the production scheduling continues to rise. By the end of 2021, the company’s capacity will reach 5 billion square meters. The company expects to add 25 lines in 2022. At present, 16 lines of Chongqing Enjie, 16 lines of Jiangsu Enjie and 200 million square meters of Suzhou Jieli are under construction, of which 4 lines of 22q1 have been completed, and the capacity will be accelerated in the second half of the year, We expect the production capacity of master coil to reach about 7.5 billion square meters by the end of 2022. In addition, in the construction of the company’s joint venture plant with Yiwei and Ningde, the 400 million square meter base film production line in Hungary is advancing in an orderly manner, and the production capacity of master coil is expected to exceed 10 billion square meters by the end of 2023; Considering the accelerated release of the company’s production capacity, we expect that the annual shipment in 2022 will reach about 5.5 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 80%. In terms of customers, in 2022, we expect the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) demand to more than double, and the increase of overseas customers LG and new North American customers is also obvious. We expect the proportion of overseas customers to further increase to about 30% in 2022. With the implementation of online coating, the coating film will enter the supply chain of major customers, and the coating proportion is expected to further increase to about 40% in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 at 5.011/7.142/9.676 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84% / 43% / 35%, and the corresponding PE values are 33 / 23 / 17x respectively, giving 50xpe in 2022 and the corresponding target price of 281 yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected
