CNOOC (600938)
Offshore oil and gas giants have reached new highs in production, reserves and net profit. The company is one of the world's largest independent oil and gas exploration and production groups. In 2021, the company's net profit reached 70.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.8%, a record high, with an average daily net output of about 1.57 million barrels of oil equivalent. Since it was listed on the stock exchange and the New York Stock Exchange in 2001, the net output has increased by about six times, maintaining the industry-leading output growth capacity. The company has net proven reserves of about 5.73 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and the service life of reserves has been maintained at more than 10 years in recent five years. The total assets of the company are about 786.6 billion, and the assets are distributed on all continents of the world.
Obvious cost and capital advantages, outstanding management benefits and great performance flexibility. The company's barrel oil cost is US $29.49/barrel oil equivalent, which is significantly ahead of its peers at home and abroad. In terms of activity-based cost, since 2014, the company has continued to carry out cost control of the whole business process through the "year of quality and benefit" and continue to promote digital and intelligent transformation. The operating cost of barrel oil in the company's main oil producing areas has continued to decline steadily, and the operating cost of barrel oil has a cost advantage of about US $3 / barrel oil equivalent compared with the average level of peers in the same period. In addition to the low oil price operation areas in 20152017 and 2020, the price difference between the company's barrel oil cost and Brent crude oil price is more than $34, and the performance flexibility is large.
There is a mismatch between supply and demand of crude oil, and the oil price center is expected to continue to rise for a long time. At the beginning of 2022, with the liberalization of overseas sealing measures and the resumption of economic activities, the oil price stood at $70. With the geopolitical disturbance of Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil price once exceeded $100, an increase of about 30% over the beginning of the year. In the post epidemic era, with the progress of vaccine injection and the gradual liberalization of the ban measures of Omicron strain, the global economy ushered in recovery and promoted the recovery of crude oil demand; In terms of supply, the short-term political disturbance on the inland margin has increased the uncertainty of supply. In the medium and long term, it is difficult for the US shale oil and OPEC + to increase production effectively due to the decline of capital expenditure. The global medium and long-term supply is less than the growth of demand, which is expected to promote the oil price to enter a new round of business cycle.
Actively overweight natural gas and offshore wind power, and the low-carbon process is expected to benefit in the long term. In the process of low-carbon, natural gas will become the main substitute for coal and crude oil. Under the background of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the company actively distributes clean energy, and the natural gas production and reserves maintain a relatively stable growth trend. At the same time, the company actively arranges offshore wind power and onshore wind power projects, and is expected to spend about 5-10% of the annual expenditure on the construction of new energy business. By 2025, the company is expected to obtain offshore wind power resources of 5-10 million KW, installed capacity of 1.5 million KW, onshore scenery resources of 5 million KW and put into production of 5 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million KW.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 118.42/127.79/138.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.4% / 7.9% / 8.7% and EPS of 2.51/2.70/2.94 yuan respectively. As the company has not been listed in a shares, it will not be rated temporarily.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of oil price and products; Risk that the company's production increase progress is less than expected; The deterioration of the epidemic affects the need for
