\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 678 Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company issued a performance report and realized an operating revenue of 9.268 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 43.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.626 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 220.6%, a gross profit margin of 37.3%, a year-on-year increase of + 13.1pct, and a net profit margin of 17.7%, a year-on-year increase of + 9.8pct. In 2022q1, the company’s operating revenue was 2.24 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 5.8% / – 17.9% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 25.1% / + 71.3% respectively, realizing a gross profit margin of 30.4%, a month on month ratio of – 7.7pct / – 8.9pct respectively, a net profit margin of 16.7%, and a month on month ratio of – 6.7pct / + 8.3pct respectively.
In 2021, the volume and price of environmental protection and caustic soda rose together to support the upward performance, and the main products in 2022q1 fell down month on month. In 2021, the average market price of cyclopropane was 17099 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 47.5%, the price difference of cyclopropane propylene liquid chlorine was 8646 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 74.9%, and the sales volume was 222900 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 36.8%; The average market price of caustic soda was 2641 yuan / ton, a year-on-year +28.1%, the price difference between caustic soda and raw salt was 2140 yuan / ton, a year-on-year +24.9%, and the sales volume was 684500 tons, a year-on-year +1.5%. In 2022q1, the average market price of cyclopropane was 11123 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 40.8% / – 32.2%. The price difference of cyclopropane propylene liquid chlorine was 3237 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 70% / – 56.2%. The sales volume was 49500 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 12.3% / – 4.2% respectively; The average market price of caustic soda is 3841 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 100.6% / – 4.6%. The price difference between caustic soda and raw salt is 3100 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 103.6% / – 4.9%. The sales volume is 165700 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 0.1% / – 6.4% respectively. In the future, the recovery of real estate may stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and the supply and demand pattern may usher in a benign improvement. Although it is difficult for huanc to alleviate the situation of oversupply in the short term, the cost advantage of the company’s PO / MTBE project will alleviate the situation of PO price reduction.
The carbon three and carbon four comprehensive utilization project opens the second growth curve. The first phase of c3c4 comprehensive utilization project under construction is planned to start in October, and the project is changed from Po / TBA CO oxidation technology to PO / MTBE project. In addition, the by-product hydrogen of PDH project will add grey hydrogen capacity, adding that the company’s previous 16000 tons of chlor alkali by-product hydrogen has realized the supply of vehicle hydrogen energy in 2018, which will open the second growth curve by taking advantage of the development of hydrogen energy.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.740/1.932/2.607 billion from 2022 to 2024, a year-on-year increase of + 7.0% / + 11.0% / + 34.9%, corresponding to P / E of 7.5/6.7/5.0 and EPS of 0.85/0.94/1.27 yuan / share, giving a “buy” rating.
