\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co.Ltd(002743) 00274)
Event: the company achieved a revenue of 24.137 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.583 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% at the same time, of which the revenue in 2021q4 was 8.763 billion yuan, an increase of 19% at the same time and a ring increase of 22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 78 million yuan, a decrease of 90% in the same period and 90% in the ring. In 2022q1, the revenue was 4.568 billion yuan, an increase of 36% and a decrease of 48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 411 million yuan, an increase of 6% at the same time and 427% in a ring, which was slightly lower than the market expectation, mainly due to the increase of sales and R & D expenses and the penalty of delayed delivery of energy storage caused by the epidemic situation in the business plan of the power station.
Photovoltaic inverter shipments continued to increase, and the proportion of household users increased rapidly. In 2021, the photovoltaic inverter business realized a revenue of 9.05 billion yuan, an increase of 20.44% and contributed a profit of 1.3-1.4 billion yuan. In 2021, the company achieved 47gw inverter sales (18gw in China and 29gw overseas), an increase of 34% at the same time. We calculated that the global market share of shipments was 30%; The gross profit margin of inverter was 33.8%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.23pct. Among them, 2021q4 achieved shipments of about 17gw, an increase of 13% at the same time and a ring increase of about 36%. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 25-26%, down 10-13pct, mainly due to the rush loading in 2021q4 in China, which increased the proportion of China to 40% +, reducing the gross profit margin. The inverter revenue of 2022q1 company is about 2.5-2.6 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 55% / - 17%. The sales volume is about 12gw, with a year-on-year increase of about 50%, and the gross profit margin is repaired to 35-36%. The reasons are as follows: 1) the overseas market shipments with high gross profit in 2022q1 account for about 70%, and the overseas price increases by about 10% from January; 2) 120000 household inverters with high gross profit were shipped in 2022q1, corresponding to about 1.5-1.8gw, accounting for 12-15%. The market demand is strong, but there is a shortage of IGBT. The company increases the preparation of IGBT and introduces Chinese suppliers with strong supply guarantee ability. We expect the shipment target of 70gw in 2022, an increase of 49% at the same time, and longyi's position is stable.
The demand for energy storage is strong and the income is growing rapidly. In 2021, the energy storage business realized a revenue of 3.14 billion yuan, an increase of 168.51% and contributed about 200 million yuan of profit. The company delivered about 3gwh in 2021, and the sales volume of revenue recognized was 2.6-2.8gwh, which doubled year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 14.11% and a year-on-year rate of -7.85pct, mainly due to the deduction of income from deferred delivery and payment of fines in 2021q4. Due to the rapid rise of overseas electricity price and the explosion of energy storage market demand, 2022q1 company realized energy storage revenue of 600700 million yuan, an increase of about 160% at the same time, and the gross profit margin rebounded to about 20%. The company adopts the cell free strategy and cooperates with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in depth to lock the cell in advance to ensure shipment. We expect the company's energy storage shipment to be about 6gwh in 2022, doubling year-on-year growth. The company plans to focus on exploring the home storage market in Europe and Australia. We expect the company to store 100000 units in 2022, bringing stable profit contribution.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the significant increase in expenses caused by the company's channel layout and product R & D, we downgraded the company's performance. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 3.13/45.3/5.9 billion in 2022 / 23 / 24 (the previous value was RMB 4.088/5.542 billion in 2022 / 23), an increase of 98% / 45% / 30% at the same time. We give the company 50 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 105.5 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: competition intensifies and the supply of raw materials is uncertain.
