\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 03 Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) )
Based on the price comparison of interbank M & A and cross-border acquisition of securities companies and the successful cases of China's Internet traffic realization, this paper analyzes the value of securities companies' licenses in many traffic realization channels, the possibility of Internet companies obtaining domestic securities companies' licenses, and compares the traffic attributes of China stock market news and Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) acquiring securities companies' licenses. I hope to be able to answer the question of the value thickening space after Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) .
Analysis and judgment:
Comparing the acquisition of Tibet Tongxin securities by China stock market news in 2015 with the acquisition of Wangxin securities by Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) planned in 2022, we can see that 1) the profitability of fintech companies at the acquisition time point is comparable; 2) There are certain differences among the acquired targets (securities companies). Tibet Tongxin securities still had a net asset of 1.159 billion yuan at the end of 2014 and a net profit of 210 million yuan that year. Wangxin securities lost 59.8 million yuan in 2020 and its net asset at the end of the year was negative; 3) The number of monthly active users in 2014 may be comparable to the current scale of Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) paying users, but there are great differences in the way they obtain traffic - China stock market news has its own traffic ecology, Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) needs to pay advertising costs and has accumulated rich experience in buying volume and accurate touch; 4) The fund sales of Tiantian fund has reached a scale (accounting for more than 80% of the third-party sales platform in 2014). Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) since 2015, it has carried out advertising diversion cooperation with three securities companies and has some experience in opening accounts for traffic import brokerage business.
Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) plans to purchase 100% Netcom securities with 1.5 billion yuan in cash
Due to the significant operational risks caused by the bond trading business, wechat securities is seriously insolvent and unable to pay off the due debts. On July 16, 2021, Shenyang intermediate people's court ruled to accept the bankruptcy reorganization case of Wangxin securities. According to the enterprise bankruptcy law, the draft reorganization plan shall be submitted within six months. If there are justified reasons, it can be postponed for three months. The net assets of wechat securities are about -4.133 billion yuan, and Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) invested 1.5 billion yuan of restructuring investment funds to pay off the debts of wechat securities, and obtained 100% equity of the restructured wechat securities. The repayment proportion of creditors is about 34.1%. The restructuring plan was deliberated and approved by the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) 2022 on April 1. Approval procedures to be performed for this transaction: 1) the CSRC approves the qualification of the controlling shareholder of the company's securities company; Approve the qualification of the actual controller of the securities company of Huang Shaoxiong and Xu Bing, the actual controllers of the company; Approve the adjustment of equity structure of wechat securities and the change of shareholders holding more than 5% equity; 2) Shenyang intermediate people's Court of Liaoning Province ruled to approve the reorganization plan of Wangxin securities.
Optimal solution of flow realization: opening an account for continuous trading
The form of flow realization is advertising, but the optimal solution is to guide the opening of high-frequency trading accounts, such as games, e-commerce, fruits and vegetables, takeout, consumer finance, securities trading, fund sales, luxury goods, live rewards, etc.
In order to give consideration to the inclusiveness and security of financial services, the development of China's Internet finance has experienced a policy change of "encouraging innovation - preventing and controlling risks - regulatory norms - promoting again - preventing the disorderly expansion of capital". In the process of Internet antitrust and preventing the disorderly expansion of Internet capital in 2021, the financial territory of leading Internet companies has also shrunk, and some financial assets have been stripped off.
Small platforms are not easy to comply with the provisions on equity management of securities companies
According to the latest regulations in March 2021, the controlling shareholders of comprehensive securities companies need net assets of no less than 20 billion yuan and total assets of more than 50 billion yuan, and the proportion of equity actually controlled by a single non-financial enterprise in securities companies shall not exceed 50% in principle, except for the disposal of securities company risks and other situations recognized by the CSRC. There are really few private enterprises that meet the requirements of "net assets of no less than 20 billion yuan" and are not limited by "preventing the disorderly expansion of Internet capital", have financial related business experience and have practical plans and arrangements to promote the long-term development of securities companies. Among the 140 securities companies, there are not many "available for risk disposal, takeover and custody". We look back on the four companies that suffered losses for two consecutive years from 2019 to 2020. Except for Chuancai securities, they are all foreign-owned, and their net assets are positive at the end of 2020. Therefore, the bankruptcy reorganization of Wangxin securities is an extremely rare opportunity for companies that hope to open up strategic space through brokerage licenses.
Investment advice
We maintain the profit forecast in the comment report of the first quarterly report, that is, the company is expected to realize operating revenue of RMB 1.605/24.26/3.222 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 72.1% / 51.2% / 32.8% respectively; From 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 395 / 567 / 823 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 86.8% / 72% / 69.6% respectively; From 2022 to 2024, the EPS was 0.98/1.4/2.03 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price of 45.29 yuan on April 20, 2022 was 46x / 32x / 22x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the promotion of medium and high-end products is less than the expected risk; 2) The risk that the research and development of new products and new functions is less than expected; 3) Risk of market share decline due to intensified industry competition; 4) The acquisition of Wangxin securities has not been completed and there is uncertainty.
