\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Core view:
Event: the company announced the results of the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 916 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.9%; Deduct non net profit of 878 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 116.9%; The basic earnings per share is 1.03 yuan / share.
Revenue growth increased month on month, and the gross profit margin was flat year on year. The production and sales of the company are booming. The revenue growth rate of 22q1 reached 79.6%, which was 24.28pcts higher than that of 21q4, and also higher than that of 21q3. The revenue returned to the high growth channel. 22q1 gross profit margin reached 48.5%, basically flat year-on-year, with a month on month decrease of 4.5pcts. The cost is controlled properly and the expense rate during the period is reduced. Benefiting from the obvious decline of financial expenses, the expense rate of the company during 22q1 was 7.3%, which was 7.3pcts/3.4pcts lower than 21q1 / 21q4 respectively. Profitability remained high. 22q1 net interest rate reached 37.4%, up 5.7pcts year-on-year and down 1.8pcts month on month. Roe/ roe after non deduction reached 6.4%/6.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6pcts/2.58pcts. It is speculated that benefiting from the increase of product price, coating proportion and the proportion of overseas customers, the company’s 22q1 single flat profit exceeded 0.8 yuan, and the single flat deduction of non profit exceeded 0.9 yuan after withdrawing expenses such as reduction bonus.
Capacity expansion accelerated. The company has set up diaphragm production bases in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jiangxi, Zhuhai, Suzhou, Changzhou, Chongqing and other places. Downstream customers include large battery manufacturers such as lges, Samsung SDI, Panasonic, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Innovation airlines and so on. At present, the company’s wet diaphragm production capacity is about 5 billion square meters. It is expected to reach 7.5 billion square meters by the end of this year, and the shipment volume is about 5 billion square meters (the shipment volume will exceed 3 billion square meters in 2021). Overseas layout opens up our horizons. At present, the company has carried out the construction of the first overseas lithium battery diaphragm production base in Hungary. After the project is put into operation, it will form a localized supply capacity of 400 million square meters of wet lithium battery diaphragm.
Comply with the market demand and continuously enrich the product line. The company started the 200 million square meter coating project of Suzhou Jieli to increase the production capacity supply of consumer diaphragms. In order to meet the demand of energy storage market, we will continue to promote the joint venture construction of dry process lithium battery diaphragm project with Celgard, which is expected to gradually form production capacity in 2022. The company has launched eight aluminum-plastic film production lines in Jiangsu Ruijie, with a planned investment of 1.6 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of about 280 million square meters. The company cooperates with Weilan new energy and other companies to develop coating diaphragm and special customized coating diaphragm projects, which are distributed in the field of semi-solid and solid-state batteries.
New orders help to increase performance and make it sustainable. In the first quarter, the company signed a production pricing agreement with a large overseas automobile enterprise, which agreed that the supply of lithium battery isolation membrane products in 20222024 would not exceed 1.65 billion square meters and 900 million square meters / year from 2025. The company also signed the 2022 supply guarantee framework agreement with China Innovation airlines, promising to supply lithium battery isolation membrane with an amount of no more than 2.5 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: diaphragm material has the highest technical cost barrier among lithium battery materials. As the world’s largest lithium battery diaphragm giant, the company has established obvious leading advantages in capacity scale, product quality, technology R & D and market expansion. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 14.05 billion yuan / 21.07 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.97 billion yuan / 7.34 billion yuan, the EPS will be 5.57 yuan / 8.23 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 33.7 times / 22.9 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the impact of covid-19 epidemic on the industry exceeded expectations; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Risks brought by changes in industrial policies; The risk that the upstream raw materials increase too much and cannot be transmitted to the downstream; The production capacity was lower than expected.
