\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 96 Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 2.506 billion and 572 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.71% and 111.46% respectively, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 489 million, with a year-on-year increase of 93.26%. In 2021, the basic earnings per share will be 1.40 yuan. The company’s performance is in line with expectations. During the reporting period, the profit and loss from the disposal of non current assets of the company was 74.81 million, a significant increase compared with 2020. It is judged that it is mainly due to the sale of rhodium powder.
Glass fiber products have deep barriers and strong price ability, and the volume and price of yarn and products rise at the same time. In terms of price, the company’s product structure is dominated by glass fiber products, forming differentiated competition with glass fiber raw yarn enterprises such as Jushi. For a long time, the company has focused on products. The company has established a high viscosity customer group by relying on technology, products and services. The product end barrier is deep and the ability to favorable price is strong. Under the long-term association pricing mechanism, the price rise of glass fiber yarn will be successfully transmitted to the downstream in 2021. In terms of glass fiber yarn, the company’s price follows the market. Overall, the average price of glass fiber and products per ton was 843926 yuan / ton, up 24.36% year-on-year. In terms of volume, the sales volume of glass fiber and products in 2021 was 204100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.03%. The increase was mainly contributed by the ignition of 100000 tons of new line in September 2021. The cost of 2021 tons increased by 6.81%. It is judged that it is mainly caused by the rise in the price of natural gas and other fuels and the rise in the salary of personnel under the operation of the new line. It is estimated that the gross profit per ton is 344708 yuan / ton, an increase of 63.19% year-on-year. In 2021, the volume and price of the main glass fiber industry will rise simultaneously, and the industry will fully enjoy the high boom after the inflection point of 2020q4.
The long-term production capacity is expected to reach nearly one million tons and enter high-end markets such as wind power yarn and new energy vehicles. At present, the company has a production capacity of 300000 tons, plans to build a new Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of high-performance glass fiber intelligent manufacturing base, and has obtained the land required for the project construction. At the same time, the company disclosed that it plans to upgrade its subsidiary Tianma Group’s original 30000 ton production line to an annual output of 80000 tons of high-end high-performance glass fiber and special fabric production line. After being put into operation, the main products are high-strength and high modulus yarn and deep-processing products, which are mainly used in high-end fields such as wind power and new energy vehicles. The production of 80000 ton line will enable the company to have the supply capacity to customers of wind power and new energy vehicles. Under the background of double carbon, China’s wind power installation The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will maintain rapid growth, and the company’s active development in the wind power and new energy vehicle market is worth looking forward to. In the long run, with the production of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) ton intelligent manufacturing base and the completion of the technical transformation of Tianma 30000 ton old line, the company’s total production capacity is expected to reach 950000 tons, and the production capacity of nearly one million tons will greatly increase the company’s industry position.
The prosperity of the industry is expected to continue at a high level, and the comprehensive competitiveness of the company is deepening. From the perspective of the marginal new effective capacity of roving in the quarter, only the marginal new effective capacity of 21q4 is more, reaching 58000 tons / quarter. After entering 22 years, the marginal new effective capacity has slowed down. We expect the marginal new effective capacity of Q1-Q4 in 22 years to be 1.7/1.7/3.313000 tons / quarter respectively. Under the “dual control of energy consumption”, it is more difficult for the industry to increase new production capacity, and the landing uncertainty increases. Under the judgment that the demand side continues to improve, the industry boom is expected to continue, and the high price of roving is expected to be maintained. Under the annual pricing mechanism, the price stability of products is strong, which will also support the performance of the company. In recent years, the company has been aggressive in capacity expansion, adhered to the synchronous development of raw yarn and products, gradually improved the scale advantage, started the high-end product structure, strengthened the research and development of wetting agent, increased the proportion of self supply, so as to reduce costs. We are optimistic about the continuous deepening of the competitiveness of the company in terms of capacity scale, product structure and cost reduction.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of dual control of energy consumption on the acquisition progress of the company’s capacity indicators, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 and 23 years to 717 million yuan and 874 million yuan respectively (700 million yuan and 830 million yuan were predicted last time), corresponding to 9 and 7 times of PE, and maintained the rating of “overweight” at the current time point.
Risk tip: significant expansion of production capacity; The demand is less than expected; A sharp rise in energy costs; The construction progress of production capacity is less than expected.
