\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 32 New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) )
Cigarette factory, intelligent manufacturing, ink waving, national intelligent logistics system comprehensive solution provider
The company is a leading comprehensive solution provider of intelligent logistics system in China. Since its establishment in Shenzhen in 2000, the company has focused on providing customers with integrated warehousing, distribution and automatic logistics systems and services. Looking back on the development of the company for more than 20 years, the company's customers have gradually developed from tobacco to new energy, petrochemical, pharmaceutical, comprehensive supermarket and other industries, and won a number of national honors.
The downstream is booming, the company's revenue and orders are growing rapidly, and the future revenue is uncertain. From 2018 to 2021, the company's revenue increased from 416 million to 1.598 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 72% in 21 years. Driven by the high prosperity of the downstream new energy industry, the company has reached 3.8 billion orders in hand and 3.264 billion new orders in 2021. Due to the high correlation between the company's performance in the next year and the orders on hand in the previous year, the company's revenue in 22 years is highly uncertain.
Stabilize the transformation of tobacco advantageous industries to informatization and actively expand to other high growth industries. High orders lock in high growth in the next year, and long-term gross profit and net profit are expected to increase. The four logics open up the company's upward space.
Logic 1: the company is firmly stationed in the tobacco track. Tobacco is the first industry wide digital industry transformation industry. In the 14th five year plan, the company focuses on building a digital platform and has deep participation. The company has won the bid for QR code and cleaning Code Project (4 + billion space). Based on this, the company will be able to better create relevant products based on accurate data.
Logic 2: the company continues to expand to high-speed growth industries such as petrochemical, new energy, medicine and comprehensive super, and continues to obtain benchmark customers and large orders in the industry. The market space is expanded and the long-term growth is guaranteed.
Logic 3: since 2018, the company's orders on hand at the end of the year accounted for more than 200% of the next year's business revenue. The company's orders on hand in 2021 have reached 3.8 billion, and the operating revenue in 2022 is highly certain.
Logic 4: on the revenue side, the company continues to improve the capacity of self-produced software and hardware. At the same time, the after-sales operation and maintenance service of SaaS with high gross profit has also entered the starting stage, and the proportion of high gross profit business is expected to gradually increase; On the profit side, the company's expenses are well controlled, the sales expenses and management expenses are reduced year by year, and the cost of centralized purchase will be gradually reduced after the scale increases. We expect that the company's net interest rate is expected to gradually increase in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation analysis: considering the leading position of New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) in China in the integrated solution of intelligent logistics system, high market share in the industry and high prosperity of downstream application industry, we give New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) 35xpe a reasonable valuation of about 5.613 billion yuan in the medium term (2022) and the corresponding target price of 18.46 yuan. In the long run, New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) while stabilizing the tobacco, new energy, petroleum and petrochemical industries, if the downstream industries are successfully expanded, the growth space will be broader.
Risk warning: the expansion of downstream industries is less than expected; The progress of R & D is less than expected; The epidemic continues to affect the macro-economy; Project characteristics affect business performance; Many factors lead to the decline of gross profit margin; There is a risk of recovery of accounts receivable
