\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 96 Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved an annual operating income of 614million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.47%.
Comments:
The revenue doubled and the Department's component assembly business achieved a breakthrough: in 2021, the company continued to steadily promote various businesses, the new capacity of precision CNC machining was released one after another, the capacity utilization rate of special processes of heat meters was steadily improved, the component assembly business began to be delivered and settled, the advantages of the whole process business of aviation parts were gradually reflected, and the revenue increased by 102.12% year-on-year. The company achieved a breakthrough in the component assembly business of the Department, completed the assembly of components in the complex central section of a certain UAV, and completed the overall delivery of the fuselage section of the model. It is expected that in the future, with the increase of the scale of the component assembly business of the Department, the contribution of revenue and profit level is expected to continue to rise.
Take advantage of the capital market to speed up the production and construction of investment projects: in 2021, the company completed the refinancing of RMB 500 million by issuing shares to specific objects, of which the planned total investment of aviation parts intelligent manufacturing center project is RMB 440 million, the capital construction cycle is two years, part of the project is put into operation in the third year, and the production is reached in the fifth year. According to the company's expectation, the annual sales revenue and net profit after the completion of the project will be RMB 234 million and RMB 60 million. In addition, the CNC business of Xindu Branch / subsidiary of the company was put into operation in September 2021, and the CNC capacity was gradually released; The aviation intelligent manufacturing and system integration center project completed the main structure construction on schedule, and began to purchase main equipment. The continuous production and construction of new production capacity has laid a solid foundation for the double upgrading of the company's production capacity industry.
Continuous high growth of 22q1: the company also released the first quarterly report of 2022, and the operating revenue of 22q1 was 177 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 66 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.95%. The trend of rapid growth continues.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 exceeds our previous forecast value. Considering the continuous and rapid development of the company, the company raised its profit forecast of 3.75% / 4.94% to 357 million yuan / 488 million yuan in 202223, and predicted a profit of 642 million yuan in 2024, EPS of 1.46/2.00/2.63 yuan in 202224, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 31 / 23 / 17x respectively. Under the market background of increasing the number and upgrading of Chinese military aircraft, increasing demand for civil aircraft and gradual localization, the company has made layout in advance, realized the whole process manufacturing capacity of aviation parts of "NC precision machining - special process processing - component assembly", and continued to improve the production capacity to match the growing demand of downstream. We believe that the production scale and profitability of the company are expected to continue to improve, Raise the company's rating to "buy".
Risk warning: the risk of national defense and civil aviation market demand affected by national policies and macroeconomic fluctuations; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of decline in gross profit margin; The risk that the project construction is less than expected.
