Investment suggestions: 1) vehicle: the sales volume of SAIC, great wall, GAC, Geely and other vehicles in December increased month on month respectively. It is expected that the chip supply will be significantly alleviated in December. Since the third quarter of last year, the vehicle share price has been fully reduced due to the chip supply. With the continuous recovery of the industry and the reduction of raw material prices, it is expected that the volume and profit of passenger vehicles will rise together. 2) New energy vehicles: the subsidy for new energy vehicles has declined by 30% this year. Affected by the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the rise in the price of power batteries and the decline in subsidies, China new energy vehicles have ushered in a round of price adjustment, resulting in market concerns on the demand side. From the recent stock price performance, the stock price of the new energy industry chain has fallen sharply since new year’s day, In fact, we believe that under the influence of the continuous improvement of product power, the rich supply of high-quality models and the industrial scale effect, the demand side impact of new energy vehicles is limited. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2022 is still expected to exceed 5 million, and it remains good according to the mid stream production schedule of lithium batteries in January. In addition, there has been negative news about the dual control policy of energy consumption recently, The policy has caused some interference to the industry in the short term, but the long-term good pattern remains unchanged. It is still recommended to focus on the new energy vehicle industry. 3) Intelligent networked vehicles: Tesla FSD raised its price to $12000 in the United States. Recently, CES 2022 was officially opened in the United States. Major car companies, chip companies, autonomous driving enterprises and Internet technology enterprises showed their latest products and technologies one after another. For example, Hesai technology publicly exhibited the vehicle specification semi-solid lidar at128 carrying a new generation of self-developed chips for the first time, Meanwhile, a new short-range ultra wide-angle lidar qt128 has been released. With the large-scale mass production of lidar, the continuous decline of cost and the promotion of highly automatic driving, it is expected that the penetration rate of lidar is expected to continue to increase in the future.
Market review: last week, the auto (Shenwan) industry index fell 3.92%, 1.54 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, including passenger cars – 6.08%, commercial vehicles – 1.67% and auto parts – 3.31%. The new energy vehicle index fell 6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.61 percentage points, including power battery – 8.45%, lithium positive electrode – 6.36%, lithium negative electrode – 8.46%, lithium diaphragm – 4.34% and lithium electrolyte – 5.99%.
Industry dynamics: Tesla FSD increased its price to US $12000 in the United States; Hesai technology released a new generation of vehicle specification level lidar in CES 2022; The three departments issued documents saying that new energy vehicles will become an important part of rural energy transformation.
Company dynamics: Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) (002101): Announcement on planning to acquire the equity of other shareholders of the holding subsidiary; Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) (600066): performance forecast for 2021; Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126): Announcement on obtaining the accreditation of Zhejiang key laboratory in 2022.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
