In November, the growth rate of real estate completion became positive. From January to November 2021, the completed area of real estate housing in China was 495.8228 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and the cumulative increase was 0.7 PCT less than that from January to October. The construction area of real estate housing was 1.35 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and the cumulative growth rate was 1.6pct lower than that from January to October. In November, 115.368 million square meters of commercial housing were newly started, a year-on-year decrease of 22.38%, the growth rate increased by 11.5 PCT month on month, the completed residential area was 81.6682 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, and the growth rate increased by 34.56 PCT month on month.
The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly. In December 2021, the monthly average price of copper decreased month on month, while the monthly average price of aluminum and screw thread steel increased month on month, with a range of – 2.2%, 2.04% and 2.55%. From the perspective of year-on-year growth, the monthly average price of copper, aluminum and screw thread steel increased by 23.15%, 33.57% and 6.37% year-on-year, which decreased significantly compared with November.
Domestic shipments of air conditioners fell, and export growth fell month on month. In November 2021, 9.7767 million household air conditioners were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. Among them, domestic shipments were 5.1741 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51%, and exports were 4.6026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. November is the off-season for air conditioning sales in China. From the retail side, the performance in November this year was poor, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) retail volume decreased year-on-year. The poor performance of the retail end is mainly due to the weak overall performance of Chinese consumption and the sharp increase in manufacturing costs, which makes the overall price of air conditioning in a more rational position. In terms of exports, although it maintained growth in November, the growth rate narrowed significantly month on month.
The home appliance index rose 6.68% in December. Shenwan home appliance index rose 6.68% in December, ranking ninth among Shenwan’s 28 primary industries. In 2021, the home appliance sector fell 19.54%, which was lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (- 5.2%), and the industry price earnings ratio (TTM) was 17.97. The industry P / E ratio (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) is 2.8 units lower than the historical average since 2005. The valuation premium rate of the home appliance sector (after A-Shares excluding bank shares) is – 17.01%, and the historical average is – 11.07%. The industry valuation premium rate is 5.94pct lower than the average value since 2005, which is in the middle and low position.
Investment suggestion: the overall performance of the household appliance sector in 2021 is relatively weak. Looking forward to next year, the shipment of traditional household appliances is expected to remain relatively stable, and the subdivided categories such as clean appliances, integrated stoves and dishwashers are expected to maintain a high view. The rising pressure of raw material prices will slow down, and the profitability of household appliance enterprises will be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines. First, traditional household appliance leaders benefiting from the improvement of fundamentals are recommended Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) and Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . 2、 Pay attention to the leading industry segments with high prosperity, and recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894)
Risk tip: risk of raw material price change; Risk of declining prosperity of emerging categories; The risk of intensified industry competition.
