Industry core view:
2022.1.3-2022.1.9: the new power industry rose by – 8.31% this week, and the CSI 300 rose by – 2.39% in the same period, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.93pct. It ranks 31st among Shenwan’s 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: on December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022, which made it clear that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. In addition, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the subsequent licensed vehicles will no longer be subsidized. From the data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to November in 2021 reached 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. In November, the market penetration of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%. New energy vehicles have entered a new stage of explosive growth, and have changed from policy driven to market driven, creating a favorable environment for the orderly decline of subsidy policies. In the environment of declining subsidies, the market will be further divided, and high-end models will be dominated by high nickel batteries, while low-end models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries will have more and more significant price advantages in the future. We are optimistic about the further improvement of lithium iron phosphate battery penetration in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to relevant cathode targets. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073), and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659).
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the overall installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 21 years exceeded expectations. The demand for modules brought by rush installation in December will be gradually released in Q1 of 22 years. At present, the production scheduling of modules in January has significantly improved. We believe that the orders of glass, plastic film and other enterprises will usher in a marginal improvement, and the price and profit are expected to reverse. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865) and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to be low this week. Jinfeng and CRRC won the bid for China Resources 200MW project at the price of 2050 and 2030 yuan / kW respectively. The decline of wind turbine prices promoted the release of demand. Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615), and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186) are recommended.
Hydrogen energy: Shanghai Securities News reported on January 9 that the evaluation of the second batch of fuel cell vehicle demonstration and application urban agglomeration has been completed. Henan urban agglomeration led by Zhengzhou and Hebei Urban Agglomeration led by Zhangjiakou, Hebei have recently been approved, and the national “3 + 2” fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern has accelerated. As the key competition area of the Winter Olympic Games, all winter Olympic support vehicles in the core area of Zhangjiakou competition area will adopt hydrogen fuel cell buses, including buses, medium buses and other models. It is planned to promote 3000 hydrogen fuel cells in the city before the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338), and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved, and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of PV installed capacity was lower than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected.
