Industry core view:
Last week, the electronic index (Shenwan level) fell by 5.30%, 2.91 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. In terms of sub industries, the secondary sub industry Costar Group Co.Ltd(002189) optoelectronics had the smallest decline, with a decline of 1.17%. The largest increase in the tertiary sub industry was the panel, with an increase of 1.32%. In the industry dynamics last week, in the display panel sector, the decline in panel prices further narrowed, which is expected to usher in an inflection point around the second quarter, and the safety margin appears; In the consumer electronics sector, in November 2021, apple maintained the first smartphone sales in China, and the best-selling iPhone 13 helped it lead the high-end market. Investors are advised to pay attention to important boom tracks in the electronics industry and recommend high-profile segments such as display panels and consumer electronics.
Key investment points:
The decline in panel prices narrowed further: according to WitsView statistics, the quotation of 55 and 65 inch medium and large panels in early January was USD 115 and 192, down USD 2 and 3 compared with the end of last month, while the quotation of 32 and 43 inch TV panels was flat at the end of last month, reaching about USD 41 and 75 respectively. In the first ten days of January, the prices of monitors and laptop panels of all sizes fell by US $0.3-0.9 compared with the end of last month, with an average decline of less than 2%. Only the mainstream size of 11.6-inch chromebook fell seriously, up to about 2.39%, and the quotation was US $36.7. Since new year’s day, the global LCD TV panel market supply has continued to be loose, mainly because the first quarter is the traditional off-season for goods preparation, and the LCD TV panel price is still in the downward channel. In addition to the radical panel procurement strategy of individual brands, the panel preparation strategy of most other brands is more conservative. However, the narrowing trend of panel price decline is further consolidated, which is expected to usher in an inflection point around the second quarter, and the safety margin appears.
In November 2021, apple maintained the first smartphone sales volume in China: according to the monthly mobile phone sales data of cinno research, apple relied on the continuous hot sales of iPhone 13 series. After reaching the first sales volume in October 2021, it remained in the champion position in November, with monthly sales reaching 6.7 million units, an increase of 14% over the same period. Meanwhile, oppo, vivo and glory decreased slightly, but the monthly sales volume of Xiaomi increased by 14.1% year-on-year, jumping to the second place with a sales volume of 4.1 million units. The performance certainty of the fruit chain is relatively higher than that of Android. The innovation and development of smart phones has reached the late stage, and the Matthew effect bonus in the stable market is more favorable for leading companies. With the release of Apple’s production capacity, the impact of core shortage is gradually weakened. The best-selling of iphone13 and the sufficient preferential subsidies from the double 11 Apple dealer channel have boosted its sales heat. Xiaomi released the redmi note 11 series at the end of October, which helped its double 11 sales increase significantly. The decline in sales of vivo and oppo is mainly due to their lack of significant sales of medium and high-end products and insufficient overall promotion margin.
There is a large room for the rise of Industry Valuation: the PE (TTM) of SW electronics sector is 43.32 times, 88.11 times higher than the peak, and there is a large upward space of 50.84%.
The performance of the electronics sector was weak last week: among the 356 stocks in Shenwan electronics industry last week, 81 rose, 270 fell and 5 remained flat, with an increase ratio of 22.75%.
Risk factors: the risk that technology R & D cannot keep up with expectations; The risk of intensified competition in the same industry; The risk of science and technology friction; The risk of the epidemic spreading again
