The prices of many products fell. On the other hand, the attention of semiconductors and new energy materials continues to increase.
Industry trends:
Among the 101 chemical varieties tracked this week, the prices of 37 varieties rose, 26 varieties fell and 38 varieties remained stable. The top five varieties were bisphenol A, phenol, methyl ethyl ketone, potassium chloride and polymerized MDI; The top five varieties were vinyl acetate, acrylonitrile, sulfuric acid, yellow phosphorus and butadiene.
WTI crude oil closed at US $78.94/barrel this week, and the closing price rose by 4.96% this week; Brent crude oil closed at US $81.93/barrel, closing up 5.34% this week. Affected by the fading of market concerns about the impact of Omicron epidemic, the unexpected production reduction of OPEC + member countries Nigeria and Libya, and the adjustment of tengiz oilfield production by TCO, the largest oil producer in Kazakhstan, Brent crude oil soared to a new high in nearly seven and a half weeks this week. As of the week ended December 31, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.144 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 3.283 million barrels. In the future, the riots in Kazakhstan have gradually subsided, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of accelerating taper remains unchanged, Iran’s crude oil shortage is difficult to enter the international market, and it is expected that the short-term oil price will still be dominated by high shocks.
The price of bisphenol a rose again this week. As of January 7, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of bisphenol A was 18400 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 9.85% higher than that of last week. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises returned to the city after the festival for inquiry and replenishment, and the trading atmosphere was improved. In terms of supply, the average operating load of bisphenol A in China this week (1.01-1.07) was 80.91%, an increase of 4.71% over last week. Bisphenol A enterprises generally maintained normal production, but mostly contract supply, and spot export was tight. Raw material end: the price of upstream phenol continues to rise broadly. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of January 7, the average price of phenol in China has been reported as 11375 yuan / ton. This round of phenol has risen since mid December. The current price has increased by 25.34% compared with the low of 9075 yuan / ton on December 14. The price of bisphenol A is expected to rise further in the short term supported by the cost side.
The price of yellow phosphorus continued to fall this week. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan closed at 34000 yuan / ton, down 8.11% from the closing of last week. In terms of supply, the output of yellow phosphorus this week (1.01-1.07) was 14364 tons, an increase of 3.83% on a weekly basis; The supply increment mainly comes from the resumption of normal production of yellow phosphorus plants of some enterprises in Mabian, Sichuan, and the increase of daily output of some enterprises in Panzhihua; As of January 6, the operating rates of the three provinces were 63.56%, 32.17% and 61.42% respectively. From the demand side, downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mentality, have low enthusiasm for taking goods, and are still mainly in need of replenishment. In terms of raw materials, the price of phosphate rock remains high; As of January 7, the average market price of phosphorus ore is 645 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of phosphorus ore will continue to rise in the later stage, and the price of yellow phosphorus may return to the upward trend of shock due to the support of cost side and the impact of electricity price reform in Yunnan and Sichuan.
Investment suggestions:
This month’s view:
Cyclical industries: the price fluctuation of subdivided products increases. As of December 31, the prices of only 14% of the tracked products had increased month on month; 71% of product prices fell month on month, accounting for 11% with a decline of more than 20%; Another 15% of the product prices were flat. As of December 31, WTI crude oil price fell 7.8% month on month and Brent crude oil price fell 7.6% month on month. Industry data: the PPI index of the chemical industry in November was 119.1, down 0.6% from October. Since December, the overall price of raw materials has continued to decline, and the operating rate of some enterprises in Zhejiang has been limited by the epidemic. The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The conference pointed out that raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption control, and some coal chemical enterprises usher in development opportunities. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company.
Growth companies: the price of new material products remains high. Compared with the general correction of the price of bulk chemicals, the price of new materials such as EVA / DMC / NMP / PVDF / metal silicon / metal lithium remained high in December. For example, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 280000 yuan / ton, with an average monthly price increase of 19%. On the other hand, China’s semiconductor material industry is in a period of rapid development, localization and substitution are continuously promoted, and China’s new production capacity can not meet the demand. Benefiting from the rapid development of downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, semiconductor and other industries, the supply of some new materials in the upstream is tight or will become the norm.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to January, most chemical prices are still facing correction pressure due to the impact of oil price and demand. From the perspective of sub industry prosperity, pesticides, infrastructure related chemicals, semiconductor materials and new energy materials are expected to maintain a high prosperity. From the perspective of valuation, after full adjustment, the valuation of private refining, industry leaders and other related chemical enterprises has returned to a low level again. In the medium and long term, with the sustainability of profits exceeding expectations, high-quality chemical assets are expected to usher in value revaluation. Recommended stocks: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Huangma Technology Co.Ltd(603181) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Lianhe Chemical Technology Co.Ltd(002250) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) etc.
January gold shares: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643)
Risk tips
1) the oil price fluctuates sharply due to the change of geopolitical factors; 2) The global epidemic situation has changed.
