The centralized commencement ceremony of major projects was held in many places across the country. From January 4 to 6, the announced total investment of major projects in 2022 has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and cement and pipe materials will fully benefit.
The sector rose this week, outperforming the market, and the yield in recent years exceeded wandequan A: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 8357.3 points, up 2.3%, outperforming wandequan a. In the last year, the building materials sector increased by 6.89%, higher than the 6.32% increase of Wande a.
Infrastructure projects in many places have been started intensively, and the demand for building materials has improved: from January 4 to 6, the announced total investment in major projects in 2022 has exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Under the background of slow financial expenditure and special bond issuance in 2021, weak infrastructure investment and relatively weak economic growth, the central economic work conference at the end of 2021 proposed “stable economic construction in 2022” and “moderately advanced development of infrastructure”; The scale of special bonds approved in advance in 2022 was announced earlier. Superimposed on the scale of special bonds accelerated at the end of 2021, the accelerated development of infrastructure in the first quarter of 2022 is in line with our expectations. From the perspective of capital construction direction, paying equal attention to traditional capital construction and new capital construction has become a significant feature of this centralized construction. The traditional capital construction direction, urban renewal, transportation and urban pipe gallery are the key directions of this centralized construction, and cement and b-end pipes will benefit in particular.
Continue to recommend pipe industry opportunities: 1 The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. Many places take urban pipe gallery, Anlan project and water conservancy construction as the key direction of infrastructure construction; 2. The main raw materials PVC, PE and PPR have reached the inflection point and entered the downstream channel; 3. Several rounds of price increases in the early stage have been basically implemented, and the profitability is expected to be improved; 4. There was a lot of decline in the early stage and the current valuation is low. Recommend the bottom end to the leading industry {0021} and focus on the leading industry {002b}.
The early judgment was gradually verified and the cement industry continued to be recommended: we continued to recommend the cement industry, the central economic work conference stated that “steady growth” and “moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure construction”, the special debt was approved and issued in advance, the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects in many places this week, the acceleration of affordable housing construction and many other events confirmed our previous judgment. At present, the coal price has dropped to about 820 yuan. Although the cement price has dropped in the off-season, the water coal price difference remains above 300 yuan, which is still at a relatively high level in history, and the profit space of the cement industry is still large. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
