Weekly view:
The reasonable housing needs of buyers were further met: on January 6, the CBRC announced the operation of the banking and insurance industry from January to November 2021, reiterating that "housing is not fried". At the end of November 2021, real estate loans increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and remained stable as a whole; More than 90% of personal housing loans are used to support the first house.
In 2022, the real estate loan policy will continue to support residents\' rigid housing demand. In terms of consumers, loans mainly meet the purchase demand of the first house; In terms of real estate enterprises, we will increase financial support for the construction of affordable housing in the long-term rental housing market. Since December 2021, the preferential purchase policies of "implementing policies according to the city" in various regions have also been mainly aimed at the first house. We believe that house purchase subsidy + loan support will release the demand for rigid house purchase driven by two wheels.
Beijing took the lead in issuing the announcement of the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022: on January 7, Beijing Municipal Commission of planning and self administration announced that the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022 will be listed for 18 parcels, and the deadline for listing and bidding is February 16. 50% of the projects for centralized land supply in Beijing have set up the link of competing for the sales area of existing houses, 6 plots have set up the link of selecting high-standard schemes, and 11 plots have set up the competition mode of "setting high-standard housing construction + lottery".
Beijing's centralized land supply rules are conducive to protecting consumers' rights and interests and boosting consumers' confidence. First of all, the proportion of competitive existing house sales area is increased. Under the existing house sales mode, consumers can see the house on the spot and avoid the risk of uncompleted tail. Secondly, the review of land purchase funds of real estate enterprises has been further optimized to ensure the compliance and safety of funds of real estate enterprises. Finally, minimum quality assurance requirements are set for each parcel to ensure product quality.
We believe that the current industry boom is facing continuous downward pressure, and the excessively tight real estate regulation and control policies will continue to correct the deviation, and guide real estate enterprises and home buyers to form positive expectations from the two directions of supply and consumption. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of optimizing the competition pattern of the land market while improving the regulation policies of the head real estate enterprises. Recommend A-share leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , and H-share growth real estate enterprises Greentown China and Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (01.01-01.07): the total transaction area of 33 key monitoring cities was 3.159 million m2, down 42.5% month on week; In 2022, the cumulative turnover was 3.159 million m2, a year-on-year decrease of 37.3%. Among them, the turnover of first tier cities is 805000 m2, down 27.7% from last week. The cumulative turnover in 2022 is 805000 m2, down 1.5% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.491 million square meters, down 47.6% from last week. In 2022, a total of 1.491 million square meters were sold, down 28.8% year-on-year; In the third tier cities, the turnover was 864000 m2, down 43.9% from last week. In 2022, the cumulative turnover was 864000 m2, down 59.5% year-on-year. Affected by the new year's Day holiday, the sales online signing data may lag.
Land supply (12.27-01.02): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 630000 m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 630000 m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 97.6%, and the supply-demand ratio is 0.16. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 3317 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 2880 yuan / m2, an increase of 2.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%.
Land transaction (12.27-01.02): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 3.9 million m3, with a cumulative transaction of 3.9 million m2 in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 90.9%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 4302 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 40.1%, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and the overall premium rate was 6.3%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4302 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the premium rate was 6.3%, a decrease of 5.0 percentage points over the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tightened more than expected; Regulatory policies tightened more than expected.
