Urban underground pipe network has different products in different scenes:
The application scenarios in the pipeline field are mainly divided into municipal pipeline and building pipeline. Municipal pipeline mainly includes five application scenarios: water supply pipeline, drainage pipeline, gas pipeline, heat pipeline and power cable pipeline. Compared with other types of pipelines, plastic pipelines have significant economy, light weight, corrosion resistance and wide application range. They are mainly used in water supply pipelines, drainage pipelines, thermal pipelines and gas pipelines in municipal pipelines. In 2020, the output of plastic pipeline industry was 16.36 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. We estimate that in 2020, the consumption of municipal engineering pipeline will be about 2.73 million tons, and the market space of municipal engineering pipeline industry will be about 24.6 billion yuan.
With the development of policies, pipeline enterprises may usher in a development window period: underground pipe network and urban renewal and transformation of old communities
At the central economic work conference in 2021, Xi Jinping general secretary gave relevant instructions to the urban pipe network, requiring that the pipeline transformation and construction must be taken as an important infrastructure project during the 14th Five Year Plan period. "Moderately advanced infrastructure investment" was written into the meeting document, and it was clearly pointed out that "including accelerating the aging, renewal and transformation of urban pipelines."
In the "14th five year plan" of many provincial and municipal local governments, it clearly involves the transformation of urban underground pipe network and related planning; There are also clear objectives in the field of urban renewal and the transformation of old communities. The importance of "steady growth" will increase in 2022, and the implementation of relevant plans and objectives may be accelerated. With the policy efforts of local governments in the fields of urban pipe network transformation, urban renewal and old community transformation, the downstream demand of pipeline enterprises may usher in marginal improvement.
The growth rate of leading enterprises is higher than that of the industry as a whole. It is judged that the profitability of major enterprises may recover in 22 years:
Among the six listed companies, Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , China Liansu, Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Guangdong Xiongsu Technology Group Co.Ltd(300599) the revenue growth rate in the first three quarters of 21 years (China Liansu was 21h1) was significantly higher than that in 20 years. Due to the rapid rise of raw material prices, the margin of net profit margin of major enterprises decreased. Since 21q4, the price of raw materials has dropped significantly. It is judged that the profitability of major pipeline enterprises may be marginally improved in 22 years.
Investment suggestions: policy development, marginal improvement of profitability
21h2, the decline of real estate has a certain impact on the demand and balance sheet of some pipe enterprises; However, with the marginal improvement of 21q4 real estate policy, the relevant risks are gradually alleviated. "Steady growth" policies such as urban pipe network reconstruction, urban renewal and old community reconstruction may be gradually launched in 2022, and the pipeline demand may be improved. In addition, with the decline of raw material prices, the profitability of relevant enterprises may have room to improve.
In the field of municipal pipeline, among the listed companies in the pipeline industry, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) the proportion of municipal pipeline business in the income structure is relatively high; Policies such as urban renewal and transformation of old residential areas are also expected to bring marginal improvement to the market demand for construction pipelines. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) (22 years PE: 9.1x), China Liansu (H shares, 22 years PE: 7.4x), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (22 years PE: 24.8x), Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) (22 years PE: 9.1x), Guangdong Xiongsu Technology Group Co.Ltd(300599) (22 years PE: 15.0x), Fujian Superpipe Co.Ltd(300198) . Note: Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) adopts the profit forecast of Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Research Institute, and the rest are consistent expectations of wind.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline in real estate investment and infrastructure investment, the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs, the risk of less than expected policy promotion, and the risk of impairment provision of accounts receivable.
