This week’s topic
On November 26, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the administrative measures for the development and construction of photovoltaic power generation (Draft for comments). It is adjusted and supplemented on the basis of the Interim Measures for project management of photovoltaic power stations, which is conducive to further standardizing the construction and operation order of China’s centralized photovoltaic power stations according to the current situation. This week, we will interpret this policy in combination with the current situation of China’s Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) development.
Core view
Decentralization of approval and management authority and new consumption responsibility weight system are expected to promote consumption
The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) consumption capacity has improved in recent years, but it is still a key problem to be solved in the future. Judging from the situation in 2021, there is a certain risk of rebound in China’s wind and light abandonment rate. Vertically, the wind abandonment rate increased year-on-year in three months from January to November 2021; The light rejection rate increased year-on-year in seven months. Horizontally, the consumption of renewable energy is characterized by uneven regions, and the phenomenon of abandoning wind and light is mainly concentrated in key provinces such as Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu and Inner Mongolia. The Administrative Measures specify that the provincial competent energy department is responsible for the up-down linkage between the provincial (District, city) renewable energy development plan and the national renewable energy development plan, according to the provincial (District, city) renewable energy plan, the responsibility weight of non hydropower renewable energy power consumption, as well as the power grid consumption and access conditions in the region, Reasonably determine the annual development and construction plan of photovoltaic power station, delegate the approval authority, and add the consumption responsibility weight system, which will help all localities better determine the construction plan according to the actual situation and help the consumption.
Development and construction plan: divided into guaranteed grid connection scale and market-oriented grid connection scale
According to the management measures, the annual development and construction plan of photovoltaic power station can be divided into guaranteed grid connection scale and market-oriented grid connection scale according to national requirements. From the perspective of the supporting scale Competitive Allocation Scheme of each province in 2021, many provinces have put forward the requirements for energy storage allocation. Recently, Guangxi Energy Bureau issued the letter on Soliciting Opinions on the scoring method for Competitive Allocation of onshore wind power and centralized photovoltaic power generation in Guangxi in 2022, which proposed that the two types of projects should be scored according to the scoring method for competitive allocation. The indicators include four major items: enterprise capacity, ensuring project implementation, socio-economic effects of the project, construction and consumption capacity requirements. In addition, compared with the 2021 version, the deduction sub item has added aspects such as “contribution to ensuring the safety of power supply during peak summer and peak winter”, guiding enterprises to actively ensure power supply during peak power consumption, which helps to improve the problem of power shortage.
The supervision is expected to be strengthened, which is conducive to the rectification of problems such as “construction before approval”
According to the statistics of international energy network in March 2019, 19 provinces and cities such as Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia have released the information of photovoltaic projects in the 12th Five Year Plan. The photovoltaic projects that have not been started are 27.2gw and the projects without indicators are 26gw. Compared with the interim measures, the administrative measures clearly include the inclusion of the annual implementation plan as a necessary condition for the operation of photovoltaic power stations, which provides a more sufficient basis for supervision and is conducive to the rectification of the problem of “construction before approval”. In addition, all kinds of stock projects shall be completed and put into operation within the specified time limit. For projects that have not been built for a long time beyond the validity period of the record, the competent provincial energy departments shall organize the clean-up in time, and those that really do not meet the construction conditions shall be abolished in time.
Investment suggestions: the administrative measures will be adjusted and supplemented on the basis of the interim measures, delegate the authority of examination and approval, add the weight system of consumption responsibility, and adjust the supporting power grid construction mechanism, which will not only improve the feasibility and rationality of the development and construction of photovoltaic power generation projects, but also stimulate the vitality and examination and approval efficiency of photovoltaic development in all provinces. At the same time, according to the management measures, the supervision is also expected to be strengthened, which is conducive to improving the chaos in the rapid development of photovoltaic and making more full use of resources. In terms of specific targets, the proposal of thermal power transformation to new energy targets focuses on [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)]; New energy operators suggest paying attention to [Longyuan Power] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ] [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ].
Risk tips: policy promotion is less than expected, power demand is less than expected, electricity price reduction risk, increased industry competition, coal price fluctuation risk, etc
