Market review: in December, the monthly rise and fall of CS media index was 15.60%, ranking first in the industry index. In the same period in 2020, the rise and fall of media index was – 6.40%; As of the end of December, CS media index rose or fell by 6.58% in the whole year. The three-level sub industry index also increased by more than 10%, the index of Internet audio-visual, animation and other cultural and entertainment industries increased by more than 20%, and the index of film and television, radio and television, publishing, information search and aggregation, and other advertising and marketing increased by more than 15%. In December, 136 listed companies in the media industry closed up, Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) with an increase of 100.80%, leading the whole industry.
Monthly report of industry data: [film] in December, the cumulative box office was 2.707 billion yuan, 10.349 million screenings and 69.93 million film viewers. Compared with December 2019, the box office and movie attendance recovered to 66% and 62% respectively. [mobile application] in November, the top four non game applications in China’s best-selling list at sea were still short video / live broadcast applications, and the ranking remained unchanged and the popularity continued; The fifth is Iqiyi, which has made brilliant gains in China’s Taiwan and Thailand areas in November. [mobile games] Tencent’s “peace elite” revenue increased by 67% month on month in November, returning to the top of the best-selling list of mobile games in China; Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) the revenue of dream new killing immortal increased greatly in November, with a month-on-month increase of 53%; The overseas revenue of the mobile terminal of MIHA Tour “original God” increased by 60.5% month on month, returning to the top of the list of mobile travel revenue at sea. [books] in November, the “three body” series returned to the top three in the open book fictional best seller list. In the non fictional best seller list, “Mr. toad went to see a psychologist” ranked first in the non fictional list. The top three books in the children’s best seller list are “little bean by the window (2018 Edition)”, “half-hour cartoon adolescence physiology” and “Charlotte’s network (New)”.
Investment suggestion: as of the closing on January 7, 2022, the overall price earnings ratio (TTM) of CS media sector is 24.10 times; In the horizontal comparison of subdivided sectors, the P / E ratios of publishing, other advertising marketing and games are 13.98, 21.00 and 22.96 times respectively, lower than the overall valuation of the media sector, and the valuation of animation, other cultural entertainment, information search and aggregation is relatively high, higher than 50 times; From the perspective of vertical comparison of historical valuation, the valuation of Internet Film and television audio, publishing, other advertising marketing, games, information search and aggregation sectors is below 50% of the valuation in recent five years, and the valuation of radio and television, film and television and other cultural and entertainment sectors is at the higher quantile of historical valuation. Driven by the theme of meta universe, the hot spots of the sector have been decentralized. Driven by the related segmentation themes including VR / AR games, virtual people and NFT, as well as the rising prosperity of the cultural and entertainment consumer market at the end of the year, the valuation of the industry and segment has been improved. However, from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the valuation of the media sector is still 26 times lower than the median valuation and 28 times the average valuation in recent five years; In recent years, driven by internal and external factors such as tightening regulatory policies and intensified market competition, the company has accelerated the survival of the fittest at the company level, and optimized the asset quality through goodwill impairment, so as to realize “the leftover is the king”. Therefore, we believe that there is still room for upward valuation of the sector and the company in the future, and we suggest to continue to pay attention to the leading companies in the subdivided sector.
Risk warning: epidemic spread impact; Risks of policy changes and regulatory changes to the development trend of the industry; Income volatility of a single cultural product; The progress of new works online is not as expected.
