This week, the value of CITIC Baijiu dropped by 4.71%, which was 3.86% lower than that of CITIC foods and beverages, which was 1.65% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index. The top 3 stocks were Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , or the last 3 stocks were Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) . This week Baijiu north capital outflow 2 billion 570 million yuan, get the net capital inflow before three of the stocks are Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , capital inflow ranked three of the shares are Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
[investment perspective]
Baijiu Baijiu is the key to the high-end liquor industry in the first two months. We will continue to push the high-end liquor sector, and high-end Baijiu will continue to usher in catalysis. The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) will be recommended. We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers to the Baijiu plate and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The 2022 performance is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to take the high-end Baijiu with a long view. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset. High-end Baijiu will continue to push hard and steady Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
This week, the secondary high-end fell as a whole, of which Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) performed better. We believe that the short-term sub high-end rise is mainly based on the market’s expectation of goods preparation for the Spring Festival and a good start in Q1 this year. We believe that sub high-end liquor can achieve performance growth by continuously expanding channels and promoting the process of high-end and nationalization. With the upgrading of consumption, high-end prices have been raised to reserve room for price increase for the secondary high-end. Some secondary high-end wine enterprises have continuously expanded channels. At the same time, they control goods to prepare for price increase, and the early logic has been fulfilled.
We maintain a neutral and cautious attitude towards the sub high-end sector as a whole, and suggest paying attention to companies with stable promotion of high-end and globalization and high performance growth stability.
[recommended subject matter]
Suggestions: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304)
Risk warning: the price of terminal products is disorder, the backlog of channel inventory is too heavy, the actual sales are not as good as expected, the brand operation is not enough, and the price of liquor can not be raised smoothly, and the epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the normal consumption of Baijiu.
