Basic conclusion
With the change of consumption structure in the United States and Japan, China’s Olive society has been formed under common prosperity, and the proportion of new consumption represented by leisure has increased to a long-term trend. We reclassify the consumption expenditure items of residents in various countries. After excluding residence, medical treatment and automobile, China’s leisure consumption accounts for about 37%, which is 10 PCT and 6 PCT lower than that of the United States and Japan respectively, with a large room for improvement. Under the background of common prosperity, China is currently in the process of doubling per capita GDP and forming an olive society. From the two dimensions of absolute value growth and structural proportion improvement, leisure consumption benefits the most (the new consumption boundary discussed later is expanded compared with leisure consumption).
The bottom change of people and goods yard has laid the foundation for the take-off of new consumption. 1) People: the aging of population structure and the miniaturization of family units are long-term trends. The improvement of consumption capacity drives residents to give higher weight to the needs of the upper class, with generation Z and the new middle class as the pioneers. 2) Goods: the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry is leading in the world. It has reached the stage of branding, platform and Realization of manufacturing capacity. Product development has turned to demand driven. 3) Market: the online market is the biggest change in the past decade. The innovation of live broadcasting, o2o and other modes superimposes the impact of the epidemic, and the online breakthrough of high-priced leisure products and high-frequency basic products will be Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integrated in the future; In the information field, the graphic content is advanced to short video / live broadcast, and the difficulty of consumer education and brand nationalization is reduced; New infrastructure, improved logistics network, reduced the difficulty of cross regional circulation of goods, improved supply chain represented by cold chain, helped multi format chain and branding, and 5g infrastructure and cloud computing opened imagination space for consumer applications.
According to the structural trend and the change of people and freight yard, we put forward three standards of “emotional goods, new rigid needs and standardization” to screen new consumer categories. 1) Emotional products, which can carry the needs of residents from simple material satisfaction to experience and emotional value, are generally still in the introduction or growth stage; 2) With the improvement of life quality, the new rigid demand can move from optional to mandatory and accepted by more users. It is expected that the medium and long-term ceiling of the category will be higher; 3) Standardization, improved infrastructure, improved manufacturing capacity and improved labor quality have reduced the difficulty of large-scale supply. It is expected that the category has a higher probability of breeding large-scale companies.
Investment advice
At the same time, it meets three standards: cosmetics, medical beauty, hotels, catering, etc. Cosmetics: in skin care, the prospect of skin grade and strong efficacy category is better, and the prosperity of color makeup is high. Medical beauty: 35 + age group, sinking market penetration space is particularly wide, light medical beauty covers a wide range, re purchase is high, and standardization is less difficult. Hotel: the chain provides a stable and high-quality accommodation experience. The medium and high-grade have both cost performance and experience, accounting for about 40% of the room for improvement compared with Europe and America. Catering: the proportion of foreign food is close to the accelerated improvement node of the United States and Japan in the early 1970s. It is optimistic about the public leisure scene, which is good for the catering supply chain under the chain trend.
Emotional products + standardization: gold jewelry, trendy play, pets, games, etc. Gold jewelry: the demand for pleasing oneself exceeds that of marriage, and new process design and new channels bring new growth points. Pets: aging and family miniaturization have spawned the demand for companionship. Only cities and towns have exceeded 200 billion yuan, of which the cat economy has grown rapidly and the food scale is large. Trendy play: young people’s emotional projection carrier. The blind box breaks the circle with the characteristics of Collection + surprise + social networking + parity.
New rigid needs + standardization: new household appliances, new consumer electronics, 15 minute life circle, health products, etc. New household appliances: the single category is optimistic about cleaning floor sweepers and dishwashers, personal care electric toothbrushes, massage machines, security intelligent door locks, etc. it is optimistic about the intelligence of the whole house for a long time. New consumer electronics: VR / AR consumer applications may break out. 15 minute life circle: the demand side and policy side require the construction of a convenient community, and are optimistic about the digital upgrading of community convenience stores, community e-commerce and traditional small stores.
Emotional products + new rigid needs: more optimistic about platforms / solutions that can effectively match supply and demand.
Risk tips
Epidemic recurrence risk, policy uncertainty risk, Sino foreign difference risk
