Core view
What to watch this week
In December, the impact of chip shortage gradually subsided, and the delivery of many new forces reached a new high;
In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the European market was stable year-on-year, except that the UK basically entered the platform period;
In 2022, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles was issued, which was 30% lower than that in 2021;
LG Chemical and China Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) set up a joint venture in Korea;
Dongfeng Honda has built a new electric vehicle factory, which will be put into operation in 2024 / with an annual output of 120000 vehicles;
Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005. SH): won another Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) big order and consolidated its leading position;
Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (603026. SH): the net profit in 2021 will increase by 350% - 381%;
Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (300769. SZ): the capacity of new phosphate cathode materials has tripled, with a higher voltage platform
Lithium battery material price
Cobalt products: electrolytic cobalt (492000 yuan / ton, 1.03%); Cobalt trioxide (384000 yuan / ton, 0.00%); Cobalt sulfate (102000 yuan / ton, 0.50%);
Lithium products: metal lithium (1515000 yuan / ton, 18.82%); Lithium carbonate (296000 yuan / ton, 9.02%), lithium hydroxide (237000 yuan / ton, 7.99%);
Nickel products: electrolytic nickel (154000 yuan / ton, 0.56%), nickel sulfate (39000 yuan / ton, 1.32%);
Midstream material: ternary positive electrode (523 power type: 263000 yuan / ton, 2.53%; 622 single crystal type: 271000 yuan / ton, 1.88%; 811 single crystal type: 288000 yuan / ton, 1.77%); Lithium iron phosphate (107000 yuan / ton, 1.90%); Negative electrode (artificial graphite (310-320mah / g) 36000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (330-340mah / g) 56000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (340-360mah / g) 73000 yuan / ton, 0%); Diaphragm (7 + 2) μ M coating 2.6 yuan / flat, 0.00%; 9+3 μ M coating (2.2 yuan / flat, 0.00%); Electrolyte (iron lithium type 110000 yuan / ton, 0%; ternary type 113000 yuan / ton, 0%; lithium hexafluorophosphate 565000 yuan / ton, 0%)
Investment proposal and investment object
In December, the impact of chip shortage gradually subsided, and the delivery volume of many new forces in China reached a new high. Xiaopeng ranked first in the annual new forces list, and the sales volume of ideal one car making new forces was the highest; The high penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe has gradually stabilized and entered the platform period. With the gradual recovery of chips, the overall sales volume will be more balanced. 2021 is the year with the best profit of midstream materials, and the prices of all links have been raised to varying degrees. The increase in prices will inevitably lead to an increase in the speed of production capacity. Considering the production expansion plan and speed of each link, the barrel effect is still effective. The tight production capacity and slow technological iteration in some links may be interpreted as a bottleneck in the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles, and become a potential plate with both volume and price. We expect that the diaphragm and solvent in 2020 may become a short board in the industry chain.
With the launch of new production capacity, it is expected that the price of core materials will stabilize or even fall, and the overall cost of battery terminal will decline in the future, while the rising trend of downstream price is very certain. With the increase of battery gross profit margin and the decrease of cost rate caused by superposition of scale effect, the battery link ushers in a profit inflection point.
In conclusion, it is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750, not rated); Midstream materials focus on Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812, not rated), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (300568, not rated), Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) (002108, bought); Solvent link Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (603026, buy). It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (300037, not rated), Liao Ning Oxiranchem Inc(300082) (300082, not rated); Ternary materials pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799, buy) of the core subject of integrated layout, and it is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073, not rated).
Risk tips
Subsidies declined, and the sales of new energy vehicles were lower than expected; Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk.
