Report summary
In December, the production and sales data of electric vehicles in major European countries remained stable, and the penetration rate continued to increase: the sales data of new energy vehicles in major European countries in December have been disclosed. The sales volume of French Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in December was 38700, a record of registration volume in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.9%, a month on month increase of + 35.3%, and a penetration rate of 24.5%, including 23000 EV passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%, a month on month increase of + 41.2%, The sales volume of PHEV passenger cars was 15000, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.9% and a month on month increase of + 27.4%; German Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars sold 81000 vehicles in December, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.9%, a month on month increase of + 19.1% and a penetration rate of 35.7%; Among them, the sales volume of EV passenger cars was 48000, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.9%, a month on month increase of + 20.3%, and the sales volume of PHEV passenger cars was 33000, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.3%, a month on month increase of + 17.4%, including Tesla + 1049, covering a month on month increase of 8%; Italian new energy vehicles sold 12000 vehicles in December, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.0%, a month on month increase of – 5.2% and a penetration rate of 13.3%; Among them, the sales volume of EV passenger cars was 6000, with a year-on-year increase of – 14.5% and a month-on-month increase of – 10.8%; the sales volume of PHEV passenger cars was 6000, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 1.7%; In December, there were 9000 new energy vehicles in Spain, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.9%, a month on month increase of 18.1% and a penetration rate of 9.1%; Among them, the sales volume of EV passenger cars was 4000, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.4%, a month on month increase of + 29.3%, and the sales volume of PHEV passenger cars was 5000, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.7%, a month on month increase of + 9.8%; Norway sold 18500 new energy vehicles in December, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%, a month on month increase of + 32.9% and a penetration rate of 90.0%; Among them, the sales volume of EV passenger cars was 14000, a year-on-year increase of + 0.6%, a month on month increase of + 22.4%, and the sales volume of PHEV passenger cars was 5000, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, a month on month increase of 77.4%. From the published data, the production and sales data of electric vehicles in major European countries remain stable and the penetration rate continues to grow. It is estimated that the overall registration of new energy vehicles in Europe will be close to 250000 in December, and the overall sales volume in Europe is expected to be close to 2 million in 2021.
Suggestion: the downstream electric vehicle sales volume is large, and the end view of the material remains the same. The price of lithium carbonate is still rising. Considering that many manufacturers stopped production for maintenance at the end of the year, the output was reduced, the mood of goods preparation at the end of the year was full, and the downstream demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate broke out, the price may still remain high in the short term, but considering that the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still in the early stage, In the future, the cost reduction brought by the release of new production capacity and process improvement in the whole industry has not been fully reflected, and under the background of high landscape and smooth cost transmission in the downstream, we believe that the profitability of all links of the industrial chain will remain at a high level. Recently, the upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have frequently signed cooperation agreements / purchase agreements. Under the background of continuous large-scale shipment of new energy vehicles and power batteries from downstream customers and rapid release of energy storage demand, the demand for guarantee and supply from downstream customers has increased, which is also a symbol of the high prosperity of the midstream battery material link in the future. We will continue to pay attention to the midstream link with good competition pattern, Optimistic about leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) lithium battery manufacturers: the cost is expected to be transmitted to downstream host plants, and the inflection point of profit expectation is emerging; 2) Lithium copper foil race track: the supply gap is the most deterministic. From the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2022, the processing fee of lithium copper foil will continue to rise, the supply gap will expand, and the leading enterprises will increase both volume and price; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of the head diaphragm enterprise has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprise has full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leader gives priority to the growth of the demand market. With the advancement of the overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers of the enterprise is increased, which is expected to further improve the profitability; 4) Cathode & precursor: the growth rate of production and sales is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and leading enterprises actively expand production to seize the market share of high-end precursors; 5) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefits from long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance will be stabilized next year, and the cost and profit advantages will be further highlighted by adding new lithium salt business; 6) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the power battery started the second production expansion tide, superimposed with the rapid growth of overseas demand, the main lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technology renewal; Risk of intensified market competition; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
