Car companies accelerate to embrace intelligence, and 2022 may be the first year of mass production of lidar front loading
Automatic driving is approaching the L3 crossing period, and the necessity of lidar boarding appears. According to the data of Gaogong intelligent vehicle, from January to November 2021, the number of L2 insured in the front standard configuration of new vehicles was 3.3851 million, and the L2 carrying rate of new vehicles reached 18.61%. In 2021, traditional car companies such as Volvo, Audi and Volkswagen and new car building forces such as Xiaopeng and Weilai accelerated to embrace lidar, and the dawn of front loading and loading began to appear. 2022 is expected to be the first year of mass production of front loading and loading of lidar.
Three dimensional competition of complete machine manufacturers: scheme, cost and ecology, and pay attention to the rise of domestic manufacturers
Lidar OEM manufacturers plan cost ecology three-dimensional competition. At present, the competition focuses on technical scheme scuffle, or will turn to low-cost competition. In the long run, upstream and downstream ecology is expected to become the key to victory. Luminar has advantages in technical solutions, cost reduction space and downstream resources, and has long-term competitiveness. In addition, local lidar manufacturers frequently produce new products, and the division of labor in the industrial chain helps mass production. Sagitar M1 has obtained a number of front installation points such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC ea’an, Weima automobile and jikrypton, and has reached OEM cooperation with Lixun; Tudaton launched the product portfolio of ultra long-range Falcon + medium and short-range Robin, and outsourced OEM to establish a production line with an annual output of 100000 units. Q1 will be mass produced and delivered soon; Hesai at128 has won a total of one million fixed points and will be mass produced and delivered within 22 years. With the improvement of localization penetration in the upstream and downstream of lidar industrial chain, the advantages of Chinese manufacturers in cost and resources will gradually appear.
Under the scuffle of OEM manufacturers, the investment opportunities in the industrial chain are determined, and the domestic supply chain is beginning to grow
The technological route of lidar is full of flowers. At present, it is mainly mixed solid-state products. The investment opportunities of the industrial chain under the scuffle of OEM manufacturers are determined. The photoelectric system accounts for the highest cost of lidar (67%), and the manual debugging cost accounts for 25%. Localization, high integration and automatic production are the main ways to reduce the cost of lidar. The upstream industrial chain mainly includes manufacturers of lasers, detectors, processing chips, rotating motors and optical components.
Lidar industry technology capacity brand three-stage drive, ps-peg-pe valuation evolution
The lidar industry is expected to be divided into three stages: technology driven, capacity driven and brand effect: 1) 2020-2025 is the technology driven stage. The PS valuation method is adopted, the competition pattern is scattered, the technical route is in full bloom, and the manufacturers designated by auto enterprises have “tickets”. 2) 2025-2030 is the capacity driven stage. By adopting peg valuation method, manufacturers with large-scale manufacturing and continuous cost reduction capacity can further seize market share. 3) The brand effect stage will be after 2030. The PE valuation method will be adopted, the upstream and downstream ecology will be complete, and the manufacturers with self-developed core components and software algorithm capabilities will enjoy higher net interest rates.
Investment suggestion: Lidar star sea is expected to grow a large number of domestic supply chain manufacturers. It is recommended to cover the target torch technology and pay attention to relevant listed companies such as Shunyu optics, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) .
Risk tips: the recovery of the automobile industry is not as expected, the transition risk of lidar technology path, and the risk of repeated epidemic.
