Core view
The European energy crisis continues to ferment, and the price of electrolytic aluminum remains strong. The European energy crisis continues to ferment, which is expected to lead to the shutdown of electrolytic aluminum, which can reach about 800000 tons. At present, it is still difficult to solve the European energy crisis in the first quarter, and the shutdown of production capacity is expected to support the price of electrolytic aluminum. At the same time, China’s aluminum ingot inventory remains low, and the pace of destocking remains unchanged. LME copper fell – 0.48% this week to close at US $9674 / ton; LME aluminum rose 4.10% to close at US $2922.5/ton; LME lead fell – 0.41% to close at US $2294.5/t; LME zinc rose 0.13% to close at USD 3538.5/t; LME tin rose 2.93% to close at US $40000 / ton; LME nickel rose 0.06% to close at US $20770 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) .
Lithium cobalt supply shortage situation remains unchanged, and prices accelerate upward this week
At the end of the year, some lithium carbonate manufacturers stopped production for maintenance, superimposed the accelerated pace of downstream production scheduling, and the price of lithium carbonate accelerated this week. Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 7.84% to close at 275000 yuan / ton. Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 6.43% to close at 298000 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) . The impact of the epidemic in South Africa on China’s Cobalt supply continued. Electrolytic cobalt rose slightly by 0.91% this week to close at 501500 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) .
Copper prices fell slightly this week, and the recovery of real estate may support copper prices
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell – 0.86% to close at 69340 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 3.48% to close at 21000 yuan / ton. Recently, the real estate industry has warmed up. Under the policy of steady growth, it is expected to accelerate the expansion of infrastructure investment, or support the prices of copper, aluminum and other industrial metals. Recommended concerns: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc.
The fed once again hawks that precious metal prices fell
The FOMC meeting minutes released by the Fed this week show that the Fed may tighten faster than expected. Affected by the news, London spot gold fell – 1.82% to close at US $1795.92/oz this week, and the US dollar index fell – 0.24% to close at 95.74; This week Comex gold fell – 1.76% to close at US $1797.40/oz, while Comex silver fell – 4.14% to close at US $22.41/oz. We believe that the game between taper rhythm and the duration of high inflation may be the key factor in the trend of gold price throughout the year, and it is expected that the gold price will maintain a narrow fluctuation throughout the year.
Risk tip: the Fed’s policy changes beyond expectations, and the global economic recovery is less than expected.
