In December, the year-on-year decline in sales expanded and was positive for two consecutive months. In December 2021, the sales area of new houses in 30 cities increased by – 22.79% year-on-year and 16.16% month on month. In terms of the first, second and third tier cities, the year-on-year increase in the transaction area of the first, second and third tier cities in December was – 20.56% / – 9.52% / – 45.30% respectively; On a month on month basis, the first, second and third tier growth rates were 12.44% / 27.29% / – 1.78% respectively. From the current policy statement, the support from the demand and supply side has been strengthened to support the fundamentals of “stall”. However, considering that it takes time to digest risk events and restore house purchase confidence, the recovery of sales is also longer than before. It is expected to stabilize in the second quarter of next year, and the year-on-year growth rate of national commercial housing sales in 22 years is about – 7.7%.
The decontamination cycle decreased slightly, and the overall inventory was not high. The inventory sales ratio of the top ten cities was 11.16, compared with -0.54 last month, and the de urbanization cycle was – 4.62% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.61%. With the repair of market sales, the de urbanization cycle decreased slightly. 1、 The inventory sales ratios of second tier cities were 8.69 and 13.37 respectively, up from -0.46 and -0.55 respectively last month. 4.20。
The bottom of the policy has passed, and the warm wind is blowing slowly. Since September, the policy’s attitude towards real estate has been consistent and warm. We believe that the end of the policy has passed, and the implementation of the policy in the future has the following aspects: 1) the tone of “housing without speculation” remains unchanged, and the “big water release” easing is difficult to reproduce; 2) Strengthen credit support for the first and improved houses, or one city and one policy in terms of down payment ratio, interest rate, house purchase rules, etc; 3) Strengthen financing support for real estate enterprises; 4) All localities have greater autonomy in policy adjustment. In the future, the “limit rise” and “limit fall” will go hand in hand, and the “regulation” and “adjustment” will go hand in hand.
Central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises have healthy finance and strong credit. From a financial point of view, the industry risk indicators are generally healthy, and high-quality leading real estate enterprises perform well under the measurement of risk indicators; From the perspective of debt repayment pressure, the debt repayment pressure will decrease in the next three years. The debt repayment pressure will be greater in the first half of 2022 and slow down in the second half of 2022. The credit stratification logic of real estate enterprises will be strengthened.
Property management: transformation from universal growth to differentiation, and transition from dependence to independence. From the 22 companies focused on tracking, the performance of 21h1 continued to increase, and the growth rate was not significantly linked to the volume; High performance ratio shows the certainty of performance; The proportion of third-party expansion continues to increase and gradually moves towards independent operation. The property management sector still belongs to the golden track. The 21-year M & a boom also indicates that the industry scale expansion and resource integration have entered a new stage. The development of value-added services continues to enable high growth, and the easing of real estate policies brings layout opportunities.
Investment suggestion: in the short-term dimension, the warmer policy promotes the improvement of valuation. At present, it is in the combination of “bottom of fundamentals” + “bottom of policy”. The policy is gradually transitioning from the credit side to the demand side. The key factors that previously suppressed the valuation have been mitigated. The current characteristics of “undervalued value, low position and high dividend” of the sector have sufficient safety margin and flexibility. We think the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year is the best window period for allocation. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of increased concentration and stable profits, the “three good real estate enterprises” with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium. We suggest paying attention to the leading stocks in the high-quality residential development industry: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2), Poly Real Estate (600048), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383), China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979), Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155), Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) (000656); It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914), Country Garden Service (6098. HK), China Resources Vientiane life (1209. HK), Xuhui Yongsheng service (1995. HK), Jinke service (9666. HK), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968).
Risk warning: the risk that the fermentation of risk events exceeds expectations and the improvement of financing environment is not as expected.
