Ping An View:
Photovoltaic silver paste is an important auxiliary material of photovoltaic cells: photovoltaic silver paste is a mixture composed of high-purity silver powder as conductive phase, glass oxide as bonding phase and organic carrier, which is formed after stirring and three roll rolling. The photovoltaic silver paste is attached to the photovoltaic cell through the screen printing process, dried and sintered to form the metal electrode of the photovoltaic cell, which can collect and conduct the surface current of the photovoltaic cell. Photovoltaic conductive silver paste is the most important auxiliary material of photovoltaic cell, which directly affects the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the cell. Among photovoltaic cells, silver paste is the material with the second cost in addition to silicon, accounting for about 10% of the cost of photovoltaic cells.
The demand for photovoltaic silver paste increased, and the unit silver paste consumption of various types of photovoltaic cells decreased: in 2020, the global and Chinese photovoltaic silver paste consumption was 2990 tons and 2467 tons, and the annual compound growth rate from 2016 to 2020 was 6.4% and 11.7% respectively. Due to the high cost, the photovoltaic industry is committed to reducing the consumption of photovoltaic silver paste per unit cell, and the consumption of silver paste per unit cell of various cells will continue to decrease in the future. On the other hand, with high photoelectric conversion efficiency, the market share of n-type photovoltaic cells is expected to gradually increase, while n-type cells are double-sided cells, and the amount of silver paste per unit cell is significantly higher than the current mainstream p-type cells, which is conducive to increasing the demand for silver paste. We believe that although the unit consumption of silver paste for various photovoltaic cells will decrease in the future, with the rapid development of photovoltaic industry and the increase of the proportion of n-type cells, the demand for photovoltaic silver paste in the world and China will increase rapidly. Among them, the global demand for silver paste will increase from 2990 tons in 2020 to 5607 tons in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of about 13%, The demand for PV silver paste in China (excluding the consumption of exported battery silver paste) will increase from 1109 tons in 2020 to 1869 tons in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of about 11%.
The production of photovoltaic silver paste has a high threshold, and localization is in full swing: the formula and production process of photovoltaic silver paste need to be adjusted with downstream technology iteration and customer demand, which has certain customization characteristics. In the production process, in addition to the high requirements for the quality and type selection of raw materials, the batching scheme, manufacturing process and mass production stability of slurry need to go through long-term R & D and continuous optimization, which has a high threshold. With the technological progress, relying on localization and cost advantages, the import substitution trend of China's photovoltaic silver paste is obvious. Among them, the localization rate of positive photovoltaic silver paste has increased significantly from about 5% in 2015 to 50% in 2020. Companies represented by polymerized shares, Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300842) and new Crystal Silver materials stand out. It is expected that the localization process of PV silver paste in China will continue in the future.
The localization of n-type photovoltaic silver paste has great room for improvement, and the low-temperature silver paste needs to be broken through: there are some differences between n-type and p-type photovoltaic silver paste, in which the fine grid of n-type TOPCON battery uses silver aluminum paste and n-type heterojunction battery uses low-temperature silver paste. Subject to scale and technology, the localization of n-type photovoltaic silver paste in China is low, only about 20% in 2020, and there is great potential for improvement in the future. Because the sintering temperature of n-type heterojunction battery is much lower than that of TOPCON and p-type battery, the formula system of silver slurry has changed greatly, which has higher requirements for raw materials and production process control and higher barriers. At present, China's low-temperature silver paste is in the early stage of development and needs further breakthrough. The global low-temperature photovoltaic silver paste is mainly provided by Ke in Japan.
Investment suggestion: Although the consumption of silver paste per unit of various types of cells will decrease in the future, the demand growth of photovoltaic silver paste in China is determined with the help of the rapid development of photovoltaic industry and the increase of silver paste consumption caused by the promotion of n-type photovoltaic cells. Photovoltaic silver paste technology has made rapid progress, has certain customization characteristics, has a high entry threshold, localization substitution continues to be promoted, and the localization prospect is promising. We believe that the leading enterprises of photovoltaic silver paste have the advantages of technology and customers, have obvious first mover advantages, and benefit from the rapid development of the industry in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300842) and Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co.Ltd(002079) leading listed companies of photovoltaic silver paste.
Risk tips: 1) the development of photovoltaic industry is lower than the expected risk. The development of photovoltaic silver paste is closely related to the photovoltaic industry. If the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in the world and China in the future is lower than expected, it will have a great adverse impact on the demand for photovoltaic silver paste; 2) Risk of raw material price fluctuation. The cost of photovoltaic silver paste is mainly silver powder, and the price of silver powder is directly related to the price of silver. If the price of silver fluctuates violently in the future and the price of photovoltaic silver paste is not adjusted in time, the operation of photovoltaic silver paste enterprises will fluctuate greatly; 3) Market competition intensifies risks. The strong downstream terminal demand has brought good market opportunities for the rapid development of photovoltaic silver paste industry. If the production capacity of existing manufacturers increases rapidly or there are more new entrants, the industry competition will intensify and the profitability of relevant enterprises will be weakened.
