Key investment points:
The central economic work conference set the macroeconomic policy of 2022 as stable and effective, implemented an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and adhered to the principle of “no speculation in housing”. Under this framework, the “three red lines” and the long-term policy of strengthening fund management will not be relaxed, but local policies have begun to be marginal relaxed in order to support the real estate market from the demand side, “Guaranteed housing” and affordable housing construction will underpin the supply side market. It is expected that the real estate market will develop steadily in 2022, which is expected to drive the valuation and repair of the construction sector. As the starting point of steady growth, infrastructure construction is expected to form physical workload in early 2022. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
The advance development of infrastructure is expected to drive the demand of the construction sector. In 2021, the special debt will be issued in the second half of the year. It is expected that a large amount of carry over funds will be issued in 2022. In addition, the Ministry of finance has issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion in advance in 2022, focusing on the construction of transportation infrastructure. The special funds issued in the second half of 2021 and the budget funds in 2022 are expected to drive the infrastructure investment in 2022, and the infrastructure, transportation and other related fields may benefit. It is recommended that China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
The national carbon emission trading market has started trading, and the power industry has become the first batch of participants. The cement industry is one of the industries with large carbon emissions. Subsequently, it will be incorporated into the national carbon emission trading market with steel and other industries. The consumption reduction, low-carbon and carbon capture technology of professional engineering leaders in high emission industries such as steel and cement will become the starting point for the whole industry to achieve carbon neutralization. Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) are recommended.
Energy saving and carbon reduction is one of the key points of carbon neutralization scheme. The construction industry has a large space for carbon reduction. Steel structure / fabricated buildings, photovoltaic integrated buildings, whole house intelligent management and energy conservation have become one of the development priorities of the industry, and there is a large market space. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Yuanda residential workers, Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) .
Risk tip: the impact of some real estate enterprises continues to spread; The progress of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment is less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes in macro environment; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
