Investment advice
For market style switching, it is recommended to pay attention to the growth high-quality brand targets with undervalued value, Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) / Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) .
We recently released a series of reports on the depth of cultivating diamonds, cultivating diamonds from the perspective of natural diamond periodicity:
Cultivated diamonds are similar to natural diamonds. The upper and middle reaches are cyclical and the lower reaches are consumer. At present, the downstream consumption of cultivated diamonds continues to release and is in the early stage of rapid growth; The upper and middle reaches benefit from the release of downstream demand, supply exceeds demand, and are in the upward stage of prosperity; In the future, with the increase of production capacity and oversupply, the upstream and midstream enterprises will experience a round of adjustment.
In the long run, the mature development of the natural diamond industry provides an opportunity for diamond cultivation, and natural diamond traders and producers have successively transformed and cultivated diamonds. In the short term, cultivating diamonds will benefit from the short-term upward trend of natural diamond demand. Natural diamonds have entered a new round of growth cycle in 21 years and are expected to last until 22 years.
Midstream processing cycle data tracking is of reference significance to upstream enterprises. The processing of natural diamonds in the middle reaches has obvious periodicity, usually 3-4 years, of which the upward cycle is 2-3 years and the downward cycle is 1 year (regardless of the special situation of 20 years). The import and export data of Indian processing in the middle reaches of cultivated diamonds have been disclosed since 17 years. Until 19 years, the demand for benefits was released and the import and export showed positive growth. So far, it has not experienced a complete short cycle. At present, both imports and exports are growing, still in the upward cycle, and the growth rate of imports is higher than that of exports. We believe that they are still in the growth period of the upward cycle and have not yet entered maturity.
Market Review
The diamond jewelry sector fell 1.61% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 3000.78pct, which is in the middle of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) , Jinzhou Cihang Group Co.Ltd(000587) led the increase, and Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) , North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) led the decline.
Industry dynamics
Industry news: the price of finished diamonds increased significantly in December 2021. The one carat rapi index increased by 5.3% in one month and 17.4% in the whole year; Kanazawa diamond, a Japanese enterprise, plans to start selling self-developed artificial black diamonds in the autumn of 2022; Consumers\’ cognition of diamonds is becoming more rational and inclusive, and the consumer demand for low-quality diamonds is rising; Berlin designer Esther perbandt created “capsule” necklace for hacker empire 4; As the ore quality of K1 mine is generally low, the diamond output of murowa, an important diamond mine in Zimbabwe, decreased by 43% last quarter; IGI recently appointed “gem educator” John Pollard as its senior president of education.
Key announcement: Leysen Jewelry Inc(603900) shareholder Ma Qiao transferred 15.58% of the company’s shares to Wang Lili and Kefu Rongguang controlled by him through agreement transfer; Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) the cumulative number of shares repurchased is 10.1478 million, accounting for 1.06% of the company’s total share capital at a cost of 30.0954 million yuan; Fujian Ideal Jewellery Industrial Co.Ltd(002740) due to the litigation matters related to performance commitment compensation, the civil judgment was received; Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) accumulatively repurchased 5.3178 million shares, accounting for 0.49% of the total share capital, at a cost of 99.5288 million yuan; Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) two new direct stores were added in December: Xiaoshan Yintai counter and Xiaoshan Yintai Xihui counter; Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) Shanghai Hongchao, a shareholder holding more than 5%, pledged 2.9375 million shares, accounting for 17.92% of its shares and 1.15% of the total share capital of the company; The number of Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) restricted shares listed and circulating is 2.275 billion, and the listing and circulation time is January 12, 2022; Zhongrun boguan and Fenghui leasing exempted a total of Jinzhou Cihang Group Co.Ltd(000587) debt of 1.411 billion yuan.
Risk tips
Terminal retail is less than expected; The price of upstream expansion fell; Downstream consumer education was less than expected.
