In the fourth quarter, most consumer building materials faced three commonalities: sales slowdown, bad debt provision and channel structure change. With the release of cost impact and the risk of bad debt provision, the valuation level of consumer building materials enterprises is expected to be repaired: we believe that the operation of Listed Companies in consumer building materials such as waterproof, ceramic tile and pipe will face three commonalities in the near future: 1 Under the environment of slowing sales and tightening real estate funds, based on the starting points of risk control and recovery, the sales growth of most companies slowed down in the fourth quarter. 2. Impairment of accounts receivable: the risks of Evergrande and related real estate companies are transmitted to the whole industrial chain. Decoration building materials enterprises have more or less the risk of bad debt accrual of accounts receivable. It is expected that there will be more centralized bad debt accrual in the annual report of 2021, but whether the full accrual needs to be comprehensively judged in combination with many factors such as the volume of bad debts. 3. Changes in channel structure: the land’s assets and capital are tightening, the project channel risk is rising, and decoration building materials enterprises pay more attention to the growth of small b-end, C-end and municipal sales. At the current time point, we believe that the cost side of decoration building materials is currently at a high level, and there is little room for further improvement of cost pressure. Affected by the marginal improvement of real estate policies and the adjustment of the company’s own channel structure, most listed enterprises are expected to maintain relatively stable sales growth in 2022, and the industry fundamentals will return to normal. With the gradual release of the risk of cost impact + bad debt provision, decoration enterprises are expected to usher in valuation repair.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 01 / 04-2022 / 01 / 07), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by 1.9%, compared with the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which was 4.3%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is 1.9%, compared with the excess yield of CSI 300 is 4.3%. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was – 2.7%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was – 4.5%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 2.2% / 14.4%.
Overview of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 106.61 yuan / weight box, down 2.3% month on month and 2.6% year-on-year. The inventory was 37.66 million weight boxes, up 7.1% month on month. Considering that the glass manufacturing cost is still high under the influence of the current high price of soda ash, the relaxation of coal to gas and power price fluctuation, it is expected that the price of float glass will gradually approach the bottom. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6275 yuan / ton, down 0.8% month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 14500 yuan / ton, down 0.5% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. The average transaction price in the national cement market this week was 526 yuan / ton. The cement delivery rate decreased by 0.4pct to 47.2% month on month, and the storage capacity decreased by 1.3pct to 61.8% month on month. At the end of the year, the project construction came to an end, the demand for cement decreased, and the price entered the downward channel. At present, the cement price base is still high. It is suggested to pay attention to the adjustment of clinker along the river after the beginning of spring.
Investment proposal and investment object
From the perspective of security, it is recommended that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636, buy), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (000012, buy), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176, buy). From an offensive point of view, recommend Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) (603688, buy). In addition, it is recommended to focus on Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372, not rated) and Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) (603826, not rated).
Optimal combination of Oriental building materials next week
\u3000\u3000 Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) 、 Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) 、 Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) 、 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) 、 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) 、 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636)
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
