Under the background of weak consumption and intensified competition in traditional channels, leisure and snack enterprises have three development trends. Among these development ideas, we believe that category expansion logic has the most obvious impact on performance in the short term, and the construction of channels will be reflected in the competitive advantages of enterprises in the medium and long term.
In 2021, affected by the epidemic situation, changes in tax burden and other factors, the overall consumption showed a weak state. Superimposed on the rise of new community group purchase channels, it had a great impact on the traditional channels and the cost side of enterprises rose, resulting in great pressure on the operation of leisure and snack enterprises in 21 years. In this context, enterprises have several trend changes:
1. Companies that started with large single products have started to develop in multiple categories, such as Qiaqia, Ganyuan and JINZI, which previously had a high market share in a certain segment, hoping to drive the sales of similar categories with the help of the brand influence of large single products. Many enterprises believe that multi category sales have dividends and begin to develop to multi category.
2. The cost of network channels and traditional channels is getting higher and higher. Under the background of intensified competition, snack enterprises begin to crowd into the commercial supermarket channels, and believe that the commercial supermarket channels still have development dividends. For example, JINZI with strong circulation channels and Three Squirrels Inc(300783) with strong online channels have begun to layout to commercial supermarket channels. The Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , which have the advantages of supermarkets, hope to improve their influence by changing packaging and SKU in supermarkets.
3. Many enterprises encountered development problems after listing and began to replace their own teams by introducing external talents.
Among these three changes, we believe that category expansion logic has the most obvious impact on performance in the short term, which is also the most recommended logic in the leisure snack track in 2022. It is suggested to focus on Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) . The construction of channels will be reflected in the competitive advantages of medium and long-term enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Three Squirrels Inc(300783) . We believe that the change of organizational structure is a positive change in enterprise development, but due to the integration of team culture, the judgment on future development is neutral.
Risk tips:
The impact of the epidemic has increased, has a greater impact on the macro-economy, and has a greater impact on the demand for food and beverage. The company has major management defects, etc.
Review of Hong Kong Stock Market:
This week, the essential consumption index of Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.14%, of which the rise and fall of key companies were Zhou Heiya - 10.37%, Yihai International - 3.74%, China Feihe - 2.29%, nongnongshan spring - 9.72%, Mengniu Dairy 4.52% and Budweiser Asia Pacific 4.65%.
