\u3000\u3000 Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) (300171)
Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) announce the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 765 million to RMB 904 million in 2021, with a median value of RMB 834 million, a year-on-year increase of 65% – 95%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is 702-841 million yuan, with a median of 771 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.24% – 112.36%.
Quarterly: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 207-346 million yuan in 2021q4, with a median of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.84% – 97.16%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is RMB 191-330 million, with a median of RMB 261 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.65% – 110.13%.
Viewpoint: Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) the annual performance in 2021 exceeded expectations, and the profit side performed better after excluding about 90 million equity incentives. During the golden development period of biopharmaceutical, the company’s platform layout of “equipment + engineering + consumables” is becoming more and more mature, opening the prelude to high growth, and the performance growth is sustainable.
We believe that the main reasons for the substantial growth of the company’s performance are:
1) downstream vaccine enterprises, Biopharmaceutical Enterprises and cdmo enterprises are in the production capacity expansion period, and the high industry boom drives the company’s product demand to rise. Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) can provide “equipment + consumables + services” from front to back for vaccine enterprises, Biopharmaceutical Enterprises and cdmo enterprises with different technical routes. During the epidemic period, with excellent product quality and timely delivery, it can enter the supply chain of many well-known customers at home and abroad, thicken the performance and lay a customer foundation for subsequent sustainable and high growth.
2) continuous optimization of product structure, from single machine – System – Engineering – “equipment + consumables + service” integration, the proportion of high gross profit products has increased, driving up the profitability. The company has established leading advantages in bioreactor, chromatography system and liquid preparation system in the field of front channel equipment; The layout of “bag + filler + medium + filter component” consumables in the whole field has been gradually implemented, and it is expected to continue to release increment.
We believe that the company’s performance growth is sustainable, which is the result of the resonance between the industry and the company’s growth:
1) the pharmaceutical equipment industry has gradually changed from a cyclical industry dominated by GMP policy and dominated by single equipment to a high boom growth industry driven by “diversified equipment + multi category consumables + personalized service”;
2) during the infrastructure construction period of downstream Biopharmaceutical Enterprises and cdmo enterprises, equipment products are expected to continue to contribute to the increment. At the same time, consumables customers are expected to deeply expand at any time, and it is expected to take over the equipment and become the core engine of performance growth; As a supplier of platform pharmaceutical equipment and consumables at home and abroad, the company has sufficient growth momentum and can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 801 million yuan, 1.001 billion yuan and 1.286 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.8%, 25% and 28.4% respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 32x, 25X and 20x respectively. Excluding the impact of amortization of equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 873 million, RMB 1051 million and RMB 1314 million from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 88.5%, 20.4% and 24.9% respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the sales of new products are less than expected; Capacity expansion is less than expected; Epidemic situation affects delivery, etc
