\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Event: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) it is announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2-2.2 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2% - 24.52%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.046-1.246 billion in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 174.68% - 227.20%.
Q4 performance exceeded expectations, and the high profit elasticity generated by the rise in express prices was realized. According to the company's performance forecast, the Q4 performance center was 1.146 billion, exceeding the general expectation of the market. We calculate and split Q4 performance: 1) the contribution of tax rebate profit is about 280 million, and the scale of tax rebate mainly refers to peers. According to the value-added tax reform policy in 2019, express enterprises enjoy tax preference by the end of 2021; 2) The profit contribution of aviation + freight forwarding is about 170 million, and aviation and freight forwarding have become the company's new growth pole; 3) Excluding the impact of tax rebate, aviation and freight forwarding, it is estimated that the profit of the main express industry is about 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 220%. The core reason for the high growth of Q4 performance lies in the rise of industry terminal prices, the high price profit sensitivity of express delivery, and the profit repair of the whole franchise express chain.
The profit of Q4 single ticket express delivery has increased significantly to 0.14 yuan, and the profit of single ticket in peak season may be higher. According to our calculation, the net profit of 21q4 Yuantong single ticket express business is 0.14 yuan. It is estimated that the net profit of 2021q1-q3 single ticket express is 0.1/0.04/0.04 yuan respectively, and the profit of Q4 single ticket express has increased significantly, but it still falls short of the profit level of 2020h1 single ticket express, so there is still room for repair. The price increase of the express headquarters in this round is mainly concentrated in November, and the high price is mainly concentrated in November / December. Therefore, it can be predicted that the single ticket profit will be higher during the peak season.
Express has set the tone for high-quality development. It is expected that the price will be generally stable in 2022, and the company will continue to usher in the double rise of performance and valuation. Recently, the express industry policies have been intensively issued again. From the policies such as the 14th five year plan for the development of the postal industry and the express market management measures (Revised Draft), we can see the consistency and firm will of supervision, and the industry is confirmed to enter a turning period of high-quality development. Looking forward to 2022, according to our tracking of the main grain producing areas of express, the terminal price is stable, and the listed companies also maintain the charging standard for franchisees. In particular, Yuantong focused on promoting the adjustment of product structure and maintaining a good price level. Referring to the profitability under the current express price and considering the scale effect and further refinement of management, we predict that the company will continue to improve its performance in 2022. At the same time, changes in the industry and the company's own changes will also bring a higher valuation level.
Investment suggestion: the short-term 2021q4 performance is realized to verify the high price profit elasticity of the express industry. The regulatory policies of the industry continued to increase, the leading business strategy of the industry changed qualitatively, and the inflection point of industry development was confirmed. We judge that the industry price may fluctuate based on the peak season of 2021 in 2022, but it is generally stable, the probability of price war is low, and the industry is still in an important profit recovery period. From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is uncertain, and service will become a new competitive factor. We are optimistic about the company's digital ability, continuous improvement of service and fine management, and prominent leading value. Based on the higher than expected profitability of 2021q4 company, we raised the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.12/31.0/3.72 billion respectively, corresponding to 28 / 19 / 16 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for e-commerce parts is less than expected, the price competition in the industry is less than expected, and the rigid costs such as oil price, labor and rent are rising.
